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GBP/USD eases from near 6-month highs, as Leave vote gains momentum

Published 06/21/2016, 06:05 PM
Updated 06/21/2016, 06:12 PM
The Pound hit its highest level against the U.S. Dollar since January on Tues. before paring the gains

Investing.com -- GBP/USD eased from near six-month highs, as a closely-watched public opinion poll in the U.K. showed that sentiments for the Leave campaign had gained momentum ahead of Thursday's historic Brexit referendum.

The currency pair traded between 1.4617 and 1.4781 before settling at 1.4655, down 0.0019 or 0.31% on the session. At session-highs, the British Pound reached its highest level against the dollar since early-January, before retreating late in U.S. afternoon trading. Previously, the Pound had closed higher against its American counterpart in each of the last three sessions while surging more than 4% over the last week.

GBP/USD likely gained support at 1.3852, the low from Feb. 26 and was met with resistance at 1.4935, the high from Dec. 21.

Investors continued to trade cautiously on Tuesday, less than 48 hours before voters in the U.K. decide on Britain's status in the European Union. While the "Remain" campaign has widened its lead since last week's tragic killing of Labour Party parliament member Jo Cox, there were indications that the "Leave," camp had regained some steam on Tuesday afternoon. A poll from Survation found that 45% supported the Stay vote, 44% pledged their support to the Exit movement. Another 11% were undecided, according to the poll. On Monday, 42% of respondents expressed support for the Leave effort. Two prominent sportsbooks, Ladbrokes (LON:LAD) and Betfair, meanwhile, said approximately 25% of all wagers have been staked on the Leave vote.

In Brussels, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi underlined the potential risks of a Brexit and said the Governing Council has contingency plans in place in the event that the Leave vote prevails. Draghi's comments preceded testimony from Janet Yellen before Capitol Hill, where the Federal Reserve chair said a departure by the U.K. could create increased volatility in financial markets throughout the euro area. Pressed further by legislators, Yellen later testified that a Brexit might lead to a "risk-off" environment in U.S. markets that could create a spike in the dollar and weigh on exports.

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In addition, Yellen told the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that the Federal Open Market Committee is hesitant to raise interest rates for the foreseeable future amid continued uncertainty in the global economy and a weak inflation outlook. Citing slow economic and financial developments in China and the euro area, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth, Yellen said the Fed expects interest rates to remain below their long-term outlook due to the temporary headwinds.

"Stronger growth or a more rapid increase in inflation than the Committee currently anticipates would likely make it appropriate to raise the federal funds rate more quickly. Conversely, if the economy were to disappoint, a lower path of the federal funds rate would be appropriate," Yellen said. "We are committed to our dual objectives, and we will adjust policy as appropriate to foster financial conditions consistent with their attainment over time.

Elsewhere, billionaire investor George Soros warned that the Pound could fall by as much as 20% versus the dollar if the U.K. leaves the European bloc. In 1992, Soros bet correctly against the Pound when the sterling fell 15%, after the U.K. opted out of the EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). On Tuesday, Soros cautioned that a potential Brexit could have more serious implications than the aforementioned event, commonly referred to as "Black Wednesday."

EUR/USD fell by 0.57% to 1.125, its lowest closing level in a week. EUR/GBP lost 0.31% to 0.7673, suffering its sixth straight losing session.

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