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FOREX-Euro slips on EU bank jitters, payrolls awaited

Published 07/08/2011, 04:58 AM
Updated 07/08/2011, 05:00 AM

* Euro slips, EU stress test details add to selling

* Losses limited, investors brace for U.S. nonfarm payrolls

* Analyst: Euro vulnerable to losses even if jobs reading strong

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, July, 8 - The euro slipped to a session-low versus the dollar on Friday, dogged by concerns that European banks were struggling as the euro debt crisis festers, while investors braced for the possibility of strong U.S. employment data later in the day.

Some in the market said a European Union draft report outlining measures to deal with weak banks pushed the euro to the day's low around $1.4310.

Stop-loss orders triggered around $1.4330 added to the euro's selling momentum, but traders cited bids around $1.4300 and below, which stemmed a further move lower.

Few investors were keen to take aggressive positions in the euro ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls at 1230 GMT, which are expected to show a strong reading following a big boost in private jobs on Thursday.

"The market is nervous about the broader health of the euro zone given its debt problems ... what the banking sector will look like after this, and how we resolve the peripheral issue, and that will always limit the upside for the euro," said Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

He said the euro's rally on a strong reading of the U.S. ADP private hiring report on Thursday may leave the single currency vulnerable to a disappointing reading from non-farm payroll numbers later in the day.

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But traders said the market was positioning for an upside reading of payrolls. Reuters earlier polling of analysts forecast an increase of 90,000 U.S. jobs in June but some economists have lifted their forecasts in the wake of the ADP reading, with the latest data seen showing gains of anywhere between 125,000 and 175,000 jobs.

By 0820 GMT, the euro had slipped 0.3 percent on the day to a session low of $1.4305 according to electronic trading platform EBS.

Traders said selling by Russian names had pushed the single currency lower, while good bids were seen ahead of $1.4300, while more were seen below that level.

The dollar edged up slightly on the day to 75.075, and traded up 0.1 percent on the day tat 81.30 yen, holding gains from the previous day, when it rose to around 81.40 yen, its strongest in around a month.

MORE EURO GAINS?

Another strong jobs report may boost investors' appetite for risk and add to the euro's upward momentum after it jumped on Thursday, when the European Central Bank signaled that euro zone interest rates would continue to rise and offered to provide liquidity to Portugal regardless of its dismal credit rating.

"If we get a payrolls report that is decent but not too elevated it will still signal a recovery while the Federal Reserve is still very much on hold (on U.S. rates)," said Carl Hammer, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

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The ECB also signalled a further tightening was likely this year, after delivering a widely expected hike.

But analysts warned the road ahead for the euro remains rocky. Next week, euro zone finance ministers meet to discuss the broad outlines of a second bailout package for Greece.

"The worrying thing here is that the 'fix' to the current concerns can only come from agreement on a second package for Greece, and that now seems unlikely before the end of August," said Rob Ryan, FX strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore. (Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Singapore)

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