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FOREX-Euro off 2-mth low but Greece worries weigh

Published 05/24/2011, 09:35 PM
Updated 05/24/2011, 09:36 PM

* Euro slips vs dollar, but above recent trough

* Some chart support for euro near $1.40

* Stabilising German business sentiment supports single currency

By Chikafumi Hodo and Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO, May 25 (Reuters) - The euro dipped against the dollar on Wednesday, inching back towards a two-month low hit earlier this week as worries over Greece's finances and Europe's spreading debt crisis continued to cast a pall over the single currency.

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.4061 , gaining momentum after triggering stop-loss offers near $1.4070, and edging back in the direction of a two-month low of $1.3968 marked on trading platform EBS earlier this week.

The single currency has support on charts near $1.4000, right around the bottom of the cloud on the daily Ichimoku chart and its 200-week average.

The euro, which has slid roughly 6 percent from a peak just above $1.4940 hit in early May, did get some respite the previous day after a report showed German business sentiment was firmer than expected in May.

"The sovereign debt problem is a political issue but is ultimately also affected by economic conditions among the core euro zone countries," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist for SMBC Nikko Securities.

"As long as an economic recovery among the core countries continues, it will be easier to gain political consensus for any needed aid and back-up (for other euro zone countries)," he said.

Over the next two or three weeks, the euro may trade in a range of around $1.39 to $1.435, Noji said, adding that the euro will likely find some support at the base line on weekly Ichimoku charts that now lies near $1.39.

On Ichimoku charts, a Japanese form of technical analysis widely used among market players, the base line can act as either support or resistance depending on its location.

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FX COLUMN-Euro breakdown paves way to $1.35 [ID:nL3E7GN0H4]

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The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against the yen to 82.00 yen , hovering near a one-month high of 82.232 yen hit on trading platform EBS last week.

Traders said the greenback drew some support from dollar demand from Japanese importers at the 0100 GMT Tokyo fixing.

The yen took in its stride data showing that Japan posted a smaller than expected trade deficit in April.

"More than the numbers themselves, I think the more important issue is how long this type of situation will persist," says Koji Fukaya, director of global foreign exchange research for Credit Suisse Securities in Tokyo, referring to the disruptions to production caused by the March earthquake and tsunami.

For dollar/yen to add to its recent gains, financial markets would likely need to return to more of a risk-taking mode, Fukaya says, adding that recent declines in US Treasury yields may temper gains in dollar/yen for now. (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney, Chikafumi Hodo and Yoshiko Mori in Tokyo; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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