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FOREX-Dollar touches 2009 lows as risk appetite increases

Published 09/09/2009, 12:08 PM
Updated 09/09/2009, 12:12 PM

* US dollar under pressure as risk appetite increases

* Euro trades at fresh 2009 high

* Higher-yielding currencies rise (Adds comments, details, updates prices)

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, touching new lows for 2009 against major currencies, as investors moved to riskier assets like stocks and higher-yielding currencies.

The rally in European and U.S. stocks has supported hopes for economic recovery, and together with the drop in U.S. dollar borrowing costs, has encouraged investors to look for higher returns around the world.

Renewed concerns over the dollar's long-term status as the world's reserve currency and options-related euro buying also contributed to the sell-off, which started on Tuesday.

"The dollar trade is ultimately a risk trade. That is, as risk appetite improves, the dollar gets hurt," said Boris Schlossberg, a director for currency research at GFT Forex in New York.

"The move lower started once a key technical barrier on euro/dollar was lifted late on Friday," he added. "Large options contracts expired and that enabled traders to push the euro through $1.45 and now the target is $1.46. The rise in stocks and commodities is contributing to the move."

In midday trading in New York, the euro rose 0.6 percent to $1.4571

UBS AG analysts cut forecasts for the dollar, saying in a note that they raised their one-month euro/dollar forecast to $1.45 from $1.40 and 3-month forecast to $1.35 from $1.30.

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"The combination of risk seeking U.S. investors diversifying their portfolios and equities rallying further will keep the dollar weak near term," said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS.

The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.6 percent to 76.86. It touched 76.810 earlier, its lowest since late September 2008.

A record number of U.S. dollar index futures contracts traded hands on Tuesday as volume picked up with the end of the summer holidays in the U.S.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.7 percent to 91.68 yen

CARRY TRADES

Low interest rates in the United States may be leading some traders to favor the greenback as a funding currency for carry traders instead of the Japanese yen, which in turn hurt the dollar, analysts said. In carry trades, investors finance purchases of higher-yielding assets by borrowing in lower yielding units.

"A growing number of investors may be using the dollar as the carry funding currency, which is contributing to its decline," said Schlossberg at GFT. "But that proposition is very risky. It implies a low risk scenario for the funding currency, and economic fundamentals in the U.S. are not that jolly."

Commodities, including oil and gold, rose again on Wednesday, which also helped higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as emerging markets assets such as the South African rand, which earlier touched a fresh 13-month high against the dollar

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Investors' focus now me be turning to monetary policy decisions. Over the next 24 hours, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada will hold monetary rate-setting meetings.

Due later on Wednesday is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a summary of economic conditions in 12 Fed districts. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer credit fell by a record $21.6 billion, raising concerns about the pace of recovery. (Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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