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FOREX-Dollar falls vs high-yielders; market eyes Bernanke

Published 08/22/2011, 04:18 PM
Updated 08/22/2011, 04:20 PM

* Dollar struggles vs high-yielders as Fed meeting nears

* SNB intervenes in Swiss franc forward market

* Merkel repeats opposition to euro zone bond idea (Updates prices)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against some commodity-linked currencies on Monday as investors speculated the Federal Reserve could take new measures to boost the U.S. economy, lifting appetite for riskier assets.

The euro wobbled against the dollar for fear the European Union was moving too slowly to address its debt and banking crisis, while Swiss authorities tried to drive down the franc.

The Fed will host its annual retreat in Wyoming this week, and recent market turmoil and signs of weaker U.S. growth have boosted expectations Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may hint at more emergency stimulus for the economy.

At last year's meeting Bernanke hinted at what eventually became a $600 billion 'quantitative easing' bond-buying program, known as QE2.

"The Fed is definitely on people's minds, and you could argue that some of the bounce seen in high-yield commodity currencies is at least in part related to hopes for more policy measures," said Wells Fargo strategist Vassili Serebriakov in New York.

The Australian dollar was last up 0.2 percent at $1.0414. The New Zealand dollar rose 1 percent to $0.8241 while the greenback slipped 0.1 percent to 0.9894 Canadian dollar .

Fed easing increases the amount of dollars in the system, pushing down the currency's value and U.S. interest rates. That encourages investors to seek higher returns in stocks or other currencies. But some analysts said Bernanke may hold off on aggressive easing plans. For more see [ID:nN1E77I0NF].

Karl Schamotta, senior market strategist at Western Union Business Solutions in Calgary, said that with the financial system already awash with cheap money, providing additional liquidity is extremely risky. In addition, the markets are already doing the central bank's work by pushing Treasury yields to shockingly low levels.

"Investors looking for a third round of large-scale asset purchases are likely to be disappointed," he said. "Those looking for another injection of cheap liquidity may express their disappointment by pushing short yields and the dollar upward."

The latest positioning data shows speculators increased their bets against the dollar last week. [IMM/FX]

The euro traded down 0.2 percent at $1.4361. Concern about the European debt crisis rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday rebuffed calls for joint euro-denominated bonds as a way for fiscally weak euro zone countries to borrow. [ID:nL5E7JJ3MN]

SWISSIE, YEN IN SPOTLIGHT

The euro and dollar edged up against the Swiss franc . Traders said the Swiss National Bank intervened in the one-month forward market to deter investors from buying the currency [ID:nL5E7JM0SD]. The SNB declined comment.

The euro traded 0.4 percent higher at 1.1346 francs. The franc has soared to record highs against both currencies as fear about Europe's debt crisis and the U.S. economy pushed investors toward the traditional safe haven. A strong franc hurts Swiss exports and tourism.

The dollar rose slightly against the yen but remained near its all-time low, last trading at 76.78 yen .

Credit Suisse currency strategists said that while "the risk of intervention seems to be rising, we think the main impact would be to slow rather than stop yen appreciation."

Those looking for a more fairly valued safe-haven currency should consider Norway's crown, said Lena Komileva, global head of G10 strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in London.

Norway's fiscal stimulus sets it apart from indebted countries that are being forced into austerity programs, while a tight labor market should preclude near-term rate cuts.

The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 5.4505 crowns . (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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