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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 23 - 27

Published 06/22/2014, 05:02 AM
Updated 06/22/2014, 05:02 AM
Dollar index ends week lower after Fed

Dollar index ends week lower after Fed

Investing.com - The dollar ended the week lower against a basket of other major currencies despite small gains on Friday, after the Federal Reserve indicated earlier in the week that rates are likely to remain on hold for some time.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, edged up to 80.41 late Friday from lows of 80.24 on Thursday. For the week, the index lost almost 0.3%.

The greenback weakened broadly after the Fed gave no indication of when interest rates could start to rise at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the Fed’s forecast of where interest rates might reach in the long term fell from 4% to 3.75%.

The central bank cut its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, to $35 billion, saying there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to continue tapering.

Despite this, the Fed also lowered its forecast for growth this year to a range of 2.1% to 2.3% from 2.8 to 3.0% previously, due to "unexpected contractions" in the first quarter as a result of the unusually harsh winter.

The Fed acknowledged the recent increases in inflation and drop in unemployment, but Chair Janet Yellen said no formula was in place for when interest rates would start to rise.

EUR/USD dipped 0.06% to 1.3598 late Friday, but posted a weekly gain of 0.47%.

The dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY easing up to 102.07 late Friday from 101.93 on Thursday. For the week, the pair eked out a gain of 0.10%.

The pound slipped lower, with GBP/USD ending Friday’s session at 1.7014, 0.15% lower for the day. For the week, the pair gained 0.22% as demand for sterling continued to be underpinned by the view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

Elsewhere, the greenback slumped to a five-and-a-half month low against the Canadian dollar on Friday, following the release of stronger-than-forecast data on Canadian inflation and retail sales.

USD/CAD was down 0.56% to 1.0757 late Friday, the weakest level since January 7. For the week, the pair lost 0.93%.

In the coming week, the U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, durable goods orders and home sales. Preliminary data on manufacturing activity from China and flash estimates on euro zone private sector activity will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 23

China is to publish the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity, while Germany and France are to release individual reports.

The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity and private sector data on existing home sales.

Tuesday, June 24

Switzerland is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to publish data on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence, as well as a report on new home sales.

Wednesday, June 25

Market research group Gfk is to publish a report on German consumer climate.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders, as well as revised data on first quarter growth.

Thursday, June 26

The Bank of England is to publish its financial stability report and Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

The U.S. is to release data on personal income and expenditure, as well as data on inflation linked to personal spending.

Friday, June 27

New Zealand is to publish data on the trade balance.

Japan is to release data on retail sales, household spending and inflation.

In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while France is to publish data on consumer spending.

Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

The U.K. is to produce data on the current account and final data on first quarter growth.

Canada is to release data on raw material price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment.

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