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Forex - Weekly outlook: February 24 - 28

Published 02/23/2014, 05:19 AM
Updated 02/23/2014, 05:19 AM
Dollar ends week lower against euro, rises against yen

Investing.com - The dollar was lower against the euro on Friday, following the release of poor U.S. housing data, but ended the week higher against the yen and most other major currencies.

The dollar slid against the euro after a report showed that U.S. existing home sales fell by a larger-than-forecast 5.1% in January, dropping to an 18-month low.

The report came in the wake of other weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indications, fuelling concerns over the growth outlook.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session up 0.15% at 1.3739, holding below the seven-week high of 1.3772 reached on Tuesday. For the week, the pair gained 0.26%.

The dollar was also lower against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF ending Friday’s session down 0.16% at 0.8880, extending the week’s losses to 0.40%.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY hit 102.82, the highest since January 31 and was last up 0.22% to 102.49. The pair ended the week 0.41% higher.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed that officials agreed the current pace of reductions to the bank’s asset purchase program would remain unchanged, so long as the economy shows signs of improvement.

The yen remained under pressure after the Bank of Japan voted to extend a bank lending scheme on Tuesday, in an attempt to boost the effectiveness of its monetary stimulus program.

The dollar was also higher against the pound after data on Friday showed that U.K. retail sales fell 1.5% in January, worse than expectations for a 1% decline.

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GBP/USD was down 0.22% to 1.6614 at the close, and ended the week down 0.62%.

The Canadian dollar ended the week lower against the U.S. dollar after data on Friday showed that domestic retail sales posted their largest one-month drop in a year in December.

Official data showed that Canadian retail sales fell 1.8%, far more than expectations for a 0.5% decline.

USD/CAD hit 1.1196, the strongest level since January 31 and was last up 0.09% to 1.1108. For the week, the pair advanced 1.40%.

In the week ahead, the euro zone is to release what will be closely watched preliminary data on consumer price inflation. Switzerland is to publish data on fourth quarter growth, while the U.S. and the U.K. are to publish revised data on fourth quarter growth. U.S. data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 24

The euro zone is to release revised data on consumer price inflation, while the Ifo Institute is to publish a report on German business climate.

Tuesday, February 25

New Zealand is to produce data on inflation expectations.

The U.K. is to release private sector reports on mortgage approvals and retail sales.

The European Commission is to publish its economic forecasts for European Union member states.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence and a private sector report on house price inflation.

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Wednesday, February 26

Australia is to publish data on completed construction work.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release a report on Gfk consumer climate.

The U.K. is to publish revised data on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment.

The U.S. is to release data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Later Wednesday, New Zealand is to release a report on the trade balance.

Thursday, February 27

Australia is to release data on private capital expenditure.

Switzerland is to publish data on fourth quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health. The country is also to release data on the change in the number of people employed in the previous quarter.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer inflation, as well as data on the change in the number of people unemployed.

Canada is to produce data on the current account.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 28

Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, retail sales, inflation, and industrial production.

New Zealand is to release data on business confidence, while Australia is to produce a report on private sector credit.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a separate report on the unemployment rate across the currency bloc. Germany is to publish data on retail sales.

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Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

Canada is to publish the monthly report on GDP growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on fourth quarter growth, a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, revised data on consumer sentiment and private sector data on pending home sales.

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