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Forex - Weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

Published 02/09/2014, 04:55 AM
Updated 02/09/2014, 04:55 AM
Dollar ends week broadly lower after soft U.S. jobs report

Investing.com - The dollar was broadly lower against the other main currencies on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected jobs last month, but the data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to scale back its stimulus program.

The U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said, well below expectations for 185,000 new jobs, as inclement weather contributed to the slowdown in hiring.

The report also showed that the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63% from a 30-year low of 62.8% last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to a five year low 6.6% from 6.7% in December.

The report was seen as unlikely to prompt to Fed to halt reductions in its stimulus program. The bank announced a second cut to its asset purchase program in January, trimming it to $65 billion-per-month.

EUR/USD rose to 1.3642, the highest level since January 30 and was last up 0.32% to 1.3634. For the week, the pair gained 0.83%.

The euro briefly dipped lower against the dollar earlier Friday after Germany's constitutional Court ruled that the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program may exceed its mandate, and referred it to European Court of Justice.

The pound was higher against the dollar, with GBP/USD ending Friday’s session at 1.6413, 0.55% higher for the day and up 0.64% for the week.

The dollar was higher against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.22% to 102.33 at the close, after initially falling as low as 101.45.

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Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar gained ground against the greenback after a stronger-than-forecast jobs report for January dampened expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Bank of Canada.

The Canadian economy added 29,400 jobs last month, after shedding 44,000 jobs in December. It was the largest increase since August and beat expectations for jobs growth of 20,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.0% from 7.2% in December.

USD/CAD hit 1.0969, the weakest since January 22 and was last down 0.34% to 1.1031. The pair ended the week 0.69% lower.

In the week ahead, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report in Washington. Her comments will be closely watched. The euro zone is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter growth and the Bank of England is to release its quarterly inflation report.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 10

Japan is to produce data on the current account, bank lending and consumer confidence.

In the euro zone, France is to release data on industrial production.

Tuesday, February 11

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.

Australia is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as reports on home loans and house price inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

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Later in the day, Canada’s government is to release its annual budget statement.

Wednesday, February 12

Australia is to produce a private sector report on consumer sentiment.

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity.

Switzerland is to publish data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of all inflation.

The euro zone is to release data on industrial production.

The BoE is to release its quarterly inflation report, which outlines projections for economic growth and inflation. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the contents of the report.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Brussels.

Thursday, February 13

Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation expectations.

Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin.

Canada is to release data on new house price inflation.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14

China is to release data on consumer and producer inflation.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Germany, France and Italy are also to release preliminary estimates on fourth quarter growth.

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Canada is to produce data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.

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