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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 11 - 15

Published 07/10/2011, 06:12 AM
Updated 07/10/2011, 06:12 AM
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar closed trading at a six-day low against the Swiss franc on Friday, after U.S. government data showed that non-farm payrolls rose significantly less-than-expected in June, with employers hiring the fewest workers in nine months.

USD/CHF hit 0.8520 on Friday, the pair’s highest since July 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8360 by close of trade, tumbling 1.42% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8274, the low of June 28 and the pair’s all-time low and resistance at 0.8494, Thursday’s high.

The Department of Labor said U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 18,000 in June, far below the 89,000 increase forecast by economists, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 9.2%, the highest level this year.

The Swissie was also boosted amid concerns over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone, after shares in Italian bank UniCredit SpA were briefly suspended on Friday. The move saw the cost of insuring Italian debt against default rise sharply, while the cost of insuring Portuguese, Irish and Greek government debt against default surged to record highs.

Earlier in the week, ratings agency Moody's downgraded Portugal's credit rating to junk status, saying there is growing risk the country will need a second round of official financing before it can return to capital markets.

On Sunday, Swiss National Bank Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said price stability in Switzerland is not under threat at present, giving the central bank no reason to intervene to stem the currency’s steep gains.

Hildebrand said the current situation was very different from 2009 and 2010 when the bank intervened in currency markets.

"The Swiss economy is growing, unemployment is low and our country has little debt compared with other countries. We see neither deflation nor inflation risks at the moment. The national bank does not need to act," he said.

In the week ahead, euro zone finance ministers are to meet to discuss a bailout package for Greece, while the highly anticipated results of European banks’ stress tests are to be released on Friday.

Meanwhile, investors will be looking towards data on retail sales and consumer prices to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide omits Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, July 12


The U.S. is to publish official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the month.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of the June policy-setting meeting. The minutes give investors a detailed insight into the economic and financial conditions that influenced the interest rate decision.

Wednesday, July 13

Switzerland is to publish government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on import prices and crude oil inventories, as well as a report on the federal budget balance. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to give testimony on monetary policy before lawmakers in Washington.

Thursday, July 14

The U.S. is to release a string of economic data, beginning with a report on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The country is also to release official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as weekly government data on initial jobless claims. Also Thursday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is to deliver the second part of his testimony on monetary policy in Washington.

Friday, July 15


The U.S. is to round up the week with a flurry of economic data, with reports on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as government data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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