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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: September 16 - 20

Published 09/15/2013, 08:01 AM
Updated 09/15/2013, 08:01 AM
Investing.com - The Canadian dollar was lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday but losses were limited as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting this week.

USD/CAD hit 1.0354, the pair’s highest since Wednesday before settling at 1.0348, 0.31% higher for the day and paring the week’s losses to 0.17%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0305, Thursday’s low and a one-month low and resistance at 1.0379, the high of September 10.

Investors remained wary after weaker-than-forecast U.S. data saw investors reassess expectations over the timing of a possible rollback in the Fed’s USD85 billion-a-month stimulus program at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18.

The Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in in August, undershooting expectations for a 0.4% increase. The data added to concerns over the outlook for third quarter growth.

A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a five month low of 76.8 in September, from a final reading of 82.1 in August.

The reports came a week after the latest U.S. employment report showed that the economy added slightly fewer jobs than expected in August. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that the decision to begin tapering will depend on whether economic data is strong enough.

The Canadian dollar showed little reaction after official data showed that Canada’s capacity utilization rate ticked down 80.6% in the three months from April to June from 80.8% previously. Analysts had expected the capacity utilization rate to tick up to 81%.

In the week ahead, investors will be keenly anticipating the outcome of the Fed’s policy-setting meeting on Wednesday, and a press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 16

Canada is to release data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to publish the Empire state manufacturing index, in addition to data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Tuesday, September 17

Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

Wednesday, September 18

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts.

The Fed is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. Chairman Ben Bernanke is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

Thursday, September 19

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed manufacturing index and data on existing home sales.

Friday, September 20

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation.



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