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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: June 6-10

Published 06/05/2011, 08:20 AM
Updated 06/05/2011, 08:20 AM
Investing.com – The Canadian dollar closed lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, declining for the fifth consecutive week as a flurry of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data added to concerns over a slowdown in Canada’s biggest trading partner.

USD/CAD hit 0.9850 on Friday, the pair’s highest since March 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9778 by close of trade, easing up 0.11% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9665, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 0.9849, Friday’s high.

 On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose much less-than-expected in May, increasing by just 54K as the private sector posted the smallest jobs gain in nearly a year. Analysts had expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by 169K last month. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 9.1% from 9.0% in April.

The Canadian dollar trimmed losses after the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund said the next tranche of international aid for Greece should be available in July. Greece’s government said a review of the country’s economic progress concluded “positively.”

Earlier in the week, U.S. data showed that manufacturing activity slumped to a one-year low in May, while consumer confidence dropped to a six-month low.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service said Thursday it may place the U.S. government’s rating under review for possible downgrade based on progress by Congress and the Obama administration on increasing the statutory debt limit in coming weeks.

Next week, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched, while Canada is to publish data on housing and manufacturing.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 6


Canada is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction. The country is also to publish a report on manufacturing growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, June 7


The U.S. is to publish official data on consumer credit, which is correlated with consumer confidence and spending. Also Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, June 8


Canada is to release government data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on crude oil inventories, which can be a big market mover for the Canadian dollar due to the size of Canada’s energy sector. The Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, which gives insights into the data policymakers looked at when making their interest rate decision.

Thursday, June 9

Canada and the U.S. are to publish official data on their respective trade balances, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the month. Canada is also to publish government data on house price inflation, while the U.S. is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, June 10

Canada is to release official data on employment change, the unemployment rate and labor productivity, leading indicators of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on import prices, which contribute to overall inflation, while the Federal Reserve is to publish a report on the federal budget balance.


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