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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: April 4-8

Published 04/03/2011, 08:22 AM
Updated 04/03/2011, 08:22 AM
Investing.com – Last Friday saw the Canadian dollar surge to a multi-year high against its U.S. counterpart after a better-than-expected U.S. government report on employment bolstered confidence in the North American economic recovery.

USD/CAD hit 0.9783 on Monday, the weekly high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9628 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.75% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9432, the low of November 12, 2007 and resistance at 0.9728, last Thursday’s high.

The Canadian dollar’s gains came after the U.S. Department of Labor said that payrolls rose by 216,000 in March after a 194,000 gain the prior month, outstripping expectations for a 188,000 increase. The unemployment rate unexpectedly slid to a two-year low of 8.8%, from 8.9% in February, the Labor Department said.

The commodity linked Canadian dollar was also boosted by higher crude oil prices, as the escalating conflict in Libya fanned concerns over the impact of higher energy costs on global economic growth.

Crude oil contracts for delivery in May were trading at USD108.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by close of trade on Friday, after peaking at USD108.46 earlier in the day.

Crude oil, Canada’s largest export has risen 16.79% during the first quarter of 2011, compared with a 15.15% gain in all of 2010.

Next week, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting, while the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on employment, housing and manufacturing.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 4


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Also Monday, the Bank of Canada is to release the results of its Business Outlook Survey, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, April 5

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of the most recent policy setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes contain in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, April 6

Canada is to publish its Ivey PMI, a leading indicator of economic health, while the U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil inventories. This data can be a significant market mover for the Canadian dollar due to the large volume of Canada’s oil exports.

Thursday, April 7

The U.S. is to publish a key weekly report on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data as well as data on consumer credit and natural gas inventories. In addition, Canada is to publish official data on building permits, a leading gauge of future construction activity.

Friday, April 8


Canada is to publish official data on employment change and the country’s unemployment rate, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country is also to publish government data on housing starts.

Finally, the U.S. is to round up the week with a report on wholesale inventories, an important indicator of future business spending.


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