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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

Published 04/27/2014, 07:55 AM
Updated 04/27/2014, 07:55 AM
U.S. dollar edges higher against Canadian dollar in rangebound trade

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday as renewed concerns over hostilities between Russia and Ukraine fuelled risk aversion, dampening demand for the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD ended Friday’s session at 1.1038, up modestly from Thursday’s close of 1.1019. For the week, the pair eked out a gain of 0.17% in rangebound trade.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0999, the low of April 22 and resistance at 1.1075.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up economic sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on Russia on Friday, citing the potential for “additional significant outflows” of capital due to escalating hostilities with Ukraine.

The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

The pair traded in a relatively narrow range all week, with the greenback supported by indications that the U.S. economy is recovering. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, remained softer as the Bank of Canada’s dovish stance weighed.

In a speech on Thursday, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said interest rates will stay low for longer, while inflation will remain below the central bank’s 2% target for at least another two years.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Wednesday’s Canadian data on economic growth will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Later Tuesday, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

Wednesday, April 30

Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched. Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

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