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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: July 28 - August 1

Published 07/27/2014, 10:06 AM
Updated 07/27/2014, 10:06 AM
AUD/USD ends the week with a gain of 0.03%

Investing.com - The Australian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as stronger than expected data on U.S. durable goods orders underlined the view that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates sooner than expected.

AUD/USD hit a daily low of 0.9393 on Friday, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9395 by close of trade, down 0.24% for the day but 0.03% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9379, the low from July 23 and resistance at 0.9469, the high from July 24.

The Commerce Department said that U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.7% in June, beating expectations for a 0.5% gain.

Core durable goods orders, which are stripped of transportation items, grew 0.8% in June, beating expectations for a 0.6% gain.

The upbeat data came a day after the U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 19 declined by 19,000 to hit an eight-year low of 284,000.

Meanwhile, in Australia, official data released Wednesday showed that consumer price inflation rose 0.5% in the second quarter, after an increase of 0.6% in the three months to April. Analysts had expected CPI to rise 0.6% in the last quarter.

On a yearly basis, Australia CPI rose to 3.0% in the last quarter, from 2.9%, compared to expectations for an increase to 3.1%.

On Tuesday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said he is content with the current monetary policy setting and stands ready to do more if needed.

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The Aussie had come under broad selling pressure earlier in the month, when Mr. Stevens warned investors that they were underestimating the risk of a significant fall in the currency.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators decreased their bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending July 22.

Net longs totaled 38,793 contracts, down from net longs of 39,743 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s preliminary reading on U.S. second quarter growth, while Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will also be in focus.

Wednesday’s Fed statement will also be closely watched for any indications that the central bank is moving closer to raising rates.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 28

The U.S. is to release data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 29

The U.S. is to publish reports on house price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, July 30

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to publish revised data on second quarter growth.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, July 31

Australia is to release data on building approvals and import prices.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area.

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Friday, August 1

Australia is to publish data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

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