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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: July 11 -15

Published 07/10/2011, 08:12 AM
Updated 07/10/2011, 08:12 AM
Investing.com – The Australian dollar eased off a one-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after disappointing employment data added to concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and amid fears over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone.    

AUD/USD hit 1.0787 on Friday, the pair’s highest since July 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0752 by close of trade on Friday, dipping 0.2% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0653, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 1.0888, the high of May 11.

The U.S. Department of Labor said on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by a mere 18,000 in June, significantly below expectations for an increase of 89,000, as employers hired the fewest workers in nine months.

The June unemployment rate rose unexpectedly from 9.1% to 9.2%, the highest level in six months.

Meanwhile, a brief suspension in trading of Italian bank shares on Friday added to concerns that the region’s debt crisis could spill over to other peripheral euro zone member states, spurring a flight to safety and reducing the appeal of higher-yielding assets.

The cost of insuring Italian debt against default rose sharply, while the cost of insuring Portuguese, Irish and Greek government debt surged to euro-lifetime highs.

The Aussie was boosted on Thursday after official data showed that the number of people employed rose by 23,400 in June, led by a jump in full-time jobs, surpassing expectations for an increase of 15,200.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% in a widely expected decision.

In its rate statement, the central bank said growth in 2011 was “unlikely to be as strong as earlier forecast,” dampening expectations for a near-term interest rate increase.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking towards official data on retail sales and consumer prices to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, while Australia is to release data on home loans. 

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 11


Australia is to publish official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Tuesday, July 12

Australia is to release a report on business confidence, an important indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on its trade balance, while the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of the June policy-setting meeting. The minutes give investors a detailed insight into the economic and financial conditions that influenced the interest rate decision.

Wednesday, July 13

Australia is to release a report on consumer sentiment, an important indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish official data on import prices and crude oil inventories, as well as a report on the federal budget balance. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to give prepared testimony on monetary policy before lawmakers in Washington.

Thursday, July 14

Australia is to publish a report on inflation expectations.

The U.S. is to release a string of economic data, beginning with a report on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The country is also to release official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as weekly government data on initial jobless claims. Also Thursday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is to deliver the second part of his testimony on monetary policy in Washington.

Friday, July 15

The U.S. is to round up the week with a flurry of economic data, with reports on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as government data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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