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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 10 - 14

Published 02/09/2014, 07:57 AM
Updated 02/09/2014, 07:57 AM
AUD/USD ends the week with a gain of 2.31%

AUD/USD ends the week with a gain of 2.31%

Investing.com - The Australian dollar rose to more than a three-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve will roll back its stimulus program following the release of mixed U.S. employment data.

AUD/USD rose to 0.8999 on Friday, the pair’s highest since January 14, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8959 by close of trade, up 0.02% for the day and 2.31% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8872, the low from February 5 and resistance at 0.8999, Friday’s high.

Data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000, after December's lackluster gain of 75,000 jobs.

It was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring.

Yet the report also showed that the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63% from a 30-year low of 62.8% last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to a five year low 6.6% from 6.7% in December.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its economic growth and inflation forecasts on Friday.

In its quarterly monetary policy statement, the RBA said that "over the past few months, there have been further signs that very stimulatory monetary policy is working to support economic activity.”

The central bank projected core inflation of 2.25% to 3.25% through December 2014, a 0.25% increase compared to what was initially estimated three months earlier.

The RBA predicted that gross domestic product will rise by 2.25% to 3.25% through December, "primarily owing to the lower exchange rate, which is expected to boost exports and restrain imports."

The statement came after the RBA on Tuesday shifted its policy stance away from easing rates, citing higher than forecast inflation. The RBA left rates on hold at 2.5%, saying "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."

Official data released Thursday showed that Australia's trade surplus expanded to AUD0.47 billion in December, from AUD0.08 billion the previous month. Analysts had expected the trade balance to swing into a deficit of AUD0.27 billion in December.

A separate report showed that retail sales in Australia rose 0.5% in December, more than the expected 0.4% uptick, after a 0.7% increase in November.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bearish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending February 4.

Net shorts totaled 55,523 contracts, down 15.5% from the previous week’s total of 65,723 net shorts.

In the week ahead, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report in Washington. Her comments will be closely watched.

Australian employment data for January will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, February 11

Australia is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as reports on home loans and house price inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Wednesday, February 12

Australia is to produce a private sector report on consumer sentiment.

Thursday, February 13

Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation expectations.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.

Friday, February 14

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.

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