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EUR/USD falls slightly ahead of the release of the FOMC's Sept. minutes

Published 10/07/2015, 04:40 PM
Updated 10/07/2015, 04:43 PM
The euro fell by roughly 0.30% against the dollar on Wed. but still closed above 1.12

Investing.com -- EUR/USD fell mildly on Wednesday, as currency traders await the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting for clues on whether the U.S. central bank will raise short-term interest rates before the end of the year.

The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.1212 and 1.1284, before settling at 1.1237, down 0.0036 or 0.32% on the session. Despite Wednesday's slight losses, the euro has still closed higher against the dollar in seven of the last 10 sessions. EUR/USD also closed above 1.12 for the fourth time in the last five trading days. Over the last month of trading, the euro is up by roughly 0.85% against its American counterpart.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.1086, the low from Sept. 3 and was met with resistance at 1.1446, the high from Sept. 18.

On Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its September meeting, one widely viewed as one of the most anticipated in recent memory due to the uncertainty surrounding a potential interest rate hike. At the meeting, the FOMC voted to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at its current rate between zero and 0.25%, marking the 55th consecutive meeting it decided to keep the rate unchanged at a near-zero level. While one member of the FOMC, Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker voted for an increase of 0.25%, four others felt that the Fed should wait until 2016 before raising short-term rates. By comparison in June, only two FOMC members were in favor of delaying a rate hike until next year.

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While the FOMC indicated that it had seen significant improvements in the U.S. economy since it last met in July, it also expressed concern that significant headwinds from weakness in China and the global economy overall could restrain domestic growth. Following the meeting, Fed chair Janet Yellen said it was likely the FOMC could hike rates by the end of the year barring unforeseen events over the next several weeks. Last week, though, a dismal U.S. jobs report for September could have planted seeds of doubt among FOMC members whether a rate hike this year should be appropriate.

On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed president John Williams reiterated that he still believes the FOMC will raise rates in 2015. Even so, Williams expects the pace of rate hikes to be the "most gradual tightening cycle in the history of the Fed."

A rate hike is viewed as bullish for the dollar as foreign investors pile into the greenback in attempts to capitalize on higher-yields abroad.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund said while the reverberations from the prolonged Greek bailout talks have been "limited," since an accord was reached over the summer, tensions could resurface if political uncertainties re-emerge. In addition, the IMF downgraded its 2015 inflation outlook for the euro zone to 0.2%, slightly below the European Central Bank's projection of 0.4%.

Yields on the U.S. 10-Year rose three basis points on Wednesday to 2.065%. Earlier on Wednesday, the bond yields reached an intraday-high of 2.086%, its highest level in a week.

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The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, gained 0.12% to end the session at 95.67. The index has closed higher in three of the last four days.

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