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EMERGING MARKETS-Latin currencies weaken on flow outlook

Published 05/04/2011, 05:14 PM
Updated 05/05/2011, 04:08 PM

* Main Latin American currencies decline against dollar

* Brazil real slips more than 1 pct to 1.603

* Real reaches weakest intraday level since April 6

* Mexico peso slips 0.75 pct; Chile Peso slips 1 pct.

By Jeb Blount

RIO DE JANEIRO, May 4 (Reuters) - Latin America's main currencies weakened on Wednesday, and Brazil's real traded at its lowest level in nearly a month as investors bet that capital flows to the region will slow in coming months.

The Brazilian real weakened 1 percent to a bid price of 1.603 reais to the dollar, its lowest intraday price since April 6. Earlier, it slipped as much as 1.12 percent to 1.605.

Mexico's peso

"Investors are starting to see that the large amount of liquidity in the U.S. is not going to last forever and that the flows are likely to slow," said Raphael Martello, economist with Tendencias Consultoria, a Sao Paulo economic research company.

Latin American currencies have soared in the last three years after the United States slashed interest rates to near zero to help the country recover from a banking crisis and recession.

Investors have borrowed billions in U.S. dollars and invested them at higher rates in Brazil, Mexico and other Latin American and emerging market economies.

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The flow of money to those economies has increased demand for their currencies, driving up the value of their money relative to the dollar.

Much of the program of credit easing in the United States is scheduled to end in June. Martello said that, and the expectation the U.S. economy will eventually recover from the 2008-2009 downturn, means U.S. rates will rise over time, making Latin American investments relatively less attractive.

In Brazil, government measures to limit the real's gains -- including a 6 percent tax on foreign loans of two years or less imposed April 6 -- have raised the cost of betting on Latin America's largest economy, said Andre Perfeito, chief economist with Gradual Investimentos in Sao Paulo.

"The loan tax and other measures taken by the government are having their impact. It's wiped out much of the advantage of borrowing abroad to invest in Brazil," he said. "This has prompted many of those with bets the real will gain to undo them."

Mexico's peso decline was aided by concern the U.S. economy, which buys 80 percent of Mexico's exports, is slowing. Reports on Wednesday said the U.S. service sector and hiring levels by private U.S. companies are slowing.

Concern was heightened on expectations the slowdown may be confirmed in the April jobs report due on Friday. [ID:nN04209762]

"There is a bit of risk aversion and worries about the (nonfarm payroll) number. It could point to slower growth," said Gabriel Casillas, an economist at JPMorgan in Mexico City.

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Chile's peso weakened along with copper, which fell to a two-month low of $9,124 a tonne on the London Metals Exchange.

The metal, used in electric and electronic goods, is Chile's main export and responsible for about a third of the country's gross domestic product.

The decline in the currencies was not tracked by similar large increases in the yield spreads between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries, a measure of investor appetite for Latin American risk.

The JPMorgan EMBI+ index <11EMJ> was little changed from Tuesday, rising 1 basis point to 276 basis points and was 2.76 percentage points more than a comparable U.S. Treasury, suggesting short-term declines in speculative investment flows may not result in a reduction in long-term investment. (Additional Reporting by Martin O'Boyle, Juan Luis Arce and Bruce Haynes; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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