(Corrects in para 7 to say U.S. bond markets, not all U.S. markets, were closed for a holiday)
* Fx, bonds move sideways in slow trade, equities firm
* Czech, Romanian CPI tick up, cbanks eyed
* Czech cbanker says no need to intervene against crown
By Krisztina Than and Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Emerging European currencies moved in tight ranges on Monday as Czech and Romanian annual inflation picked up in September and investors pondered the impact of billowing inflows of funds on exchange rates.
Inflation has been of less concern to regional policymakers since the financial crisis, with central banks in Hungary and Romania more focussed by the impact of public finance troubles and IMF bailouts on their debt and currency markets.
But debate is beginning in some countries over whether or not price growth is taking hold in a nascent recovery and when will be the right time to start tightening monetary policy.
A wave of portfolio investment floods into emerging Europe is also driving up currencies, tempering inflation but also putting potential pressure on manufacturing-led export growth.
Hungary will publish inflation data on Tuesday and Poland on Wednesday, and their inflation rates are also expected to rise, while the Hungarian government could present closely-watched budget plans for 2011 later this month.
The zloty
Trading was thin as U.S. bond markets were closed for a holiday and players digested economic data which boosted expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would adopt more quantitative easing to shore up the U.S. economy.
Those expectations lifted equity markets. Central Europe's main equity indices rose by 0.1-0.7 percent, but dealers said investor appetite looked more uncertain than last week.
September Czech inflation was a touch higher than expected and reached the central bank's 2 percent target. [ID:nPRA005280]
KBC analysts said Czech forward rate agreement (FRA) rates had started to creep up, partly tracking euro zone rates but also helped by possible bets in the market on a central bank interest rate hike coming sooner than expected.
"We still think that rate hike bets are premature, because the koruna is strong, while inflationary pressures are pretty weak," KBC said in a note.
The crown has been the best-performing emerging European currency this year and central bank chief Miroslav Singer said in a presentation released on Monday that there was no reason to intervene against its strength. [ID:nPRG004422]
Daily Hospodarske Noviny quoted Singer as saying the crown's present value was not dramatic although "the pace of appreciation in the past days was rather steep."
Romanian annual inflation ticked up to 7.8 percent from 7.6 percent in August. Analysts had expected a flat rate, and some of them said that the figures can strengthen expectations for a central bank rate hike next year. [ID:nLDE69715O]
For now, though, most analysts are backing rates to stay on hold for the next six months, with some still pondering whether the bank may be able to ease policy in between times to support growth.
"Sometime at the start of next year it is possible to see a hike," said Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc of ING in Bucharest.
HUNGARY AWAITS BUDGET PLANS
Dealers said the forint, the best performer in the region in the past month, was unlikely to return to 5-month highs touched last week at 268.70 to the euro.
"The relatively quick shift in the forint rate shows to us that the recent firming can be quickly undone, as it is based on very uncertain fundamentals (i.e. optimistic expectations regarding the government's future budget policy)," CIB Bank said in a morning note on Monday.
Hungary's budget deficit
The market is awaiting details of the 2011 budget, which the Economy Ministry is due to submit to the government by Friday, although it is not clear when they will be made public.
Markets will be closely eyeing details of the budget plans to see if the government's pledge to cut the deficit to below 3 percent of GDP next year is backed up by sustainable measures.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will unveil a second economic action plan later this week, laying the foundations for the budget deficit to meet the European Union's requirements, the daily Nepszabadsag wrote on Monday.[ID:nLDE69A08I] --------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT-------------------- Currency Latest Previous Local Local
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today in 2010 Czech crown
Yield Spreads Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=> 2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR +2 basis points to 84bps over bmk* 7-yr T-bond CZ7YT=RR +4 basis points to +101bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond CZ9YT=RR -2 basis points to +97bps over bmk* Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=> 2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR 0 basis points to +379bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR +7 basis points to +359bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR 0 basis points to +317bps over bmk* Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=> 3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR -1 basis points to +545bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR +5 basis points to +505bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR -2 basis points to +442bps over bmk* *Benchmark is German bond equivalent. All data taken from Reuters at 1211 CET. Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic close at 1600 GMT.
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