Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

Hungary's banks stable, profits and lending to fall - central bank

Published 11/24/2022, 04:49 AM
Updated 11/24/2022, 04:53 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Hungarian national flag flies on the building of the National Bank of Hungary in Budapest January 10, 2013. REUTERS/Laszlo Balogh//File Photo

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Hungarian national flag flies on the building of the National Bank of Hungary in Budapest January 10, 2013. REUTERS/Laszlo Balogh//File Photo

BUDAPEST (Reuters) - Hungary's banking system is stable and has significant reserves to manage risks, the National Bank of Hungary said on Thursday, adding that banks faced weaker profitability due to government measures, while high interest rates were set to crimp lending.

The NBH left its base rate unchanged at 13% on Tuesday and pledged to maintain tight monetary conditions for a "prolonged period", with inflation only set to decrease more significantly from mid-2023.

The bank said the deteriorating economic environment amid the war in neighbouring Ukraine had hit the Hungarian economy and posed a considerable risk to portfolio quality.

Economists polled by Reuters expect average inflation to reach a 26-year-high of 16% next year, with economic growth stalling amid high interest rates, slowing global growth and falling demand due to the surging cost of living.

"The shock resiliency of the sector is adequate, its liquidity and capital position is robust even in the case of a crisis much more severe than the current forecasts," the bank said in its financial stability report.

"We expect a decline in credit expansion in both the corporate sector and the household sector, due to the rising interest rate environment and uncertainty caused by the war."

The NBH said the median probability of default for small businesses with loans had increased to 4.7% from 2.9%, while the non-performing loan ratio among mortgage loans could rise by 2 percentage points by the end of next year as households grapple with soaring utility costs.

Return on equity in the banking sector fell by three percentage points to 7% in the first half, hit by government tax increases to rein in the budget deficit, with the stabilisation measures continuing to weigh on banking profits next year.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Hungarian national flag flies on the building of the National Bank of Hungary in Budapest January 10, 2013. REUTERS/Laszlo Balogh//File Photo

"Falling profitability and the narrowing of funding opportunities may lead to the deterioration in lending capacities over the medium term," the bank said.

"Although banks' liquidity buffers fell slightly, ample reserves are still available," it said, adding that there would only be a "temporary and manageable" capital shortfall even in a more severe, protracted stress scenario at the sector level.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.