Natural gas futures fall to 2-week low on bearish weather outlook

Investing.com - U.S. natural gas prices traded at the lowest level in nearly two weeks on Monday, as forecasts for mild weather across the U.S. in the week ahead dampened near-term demand expectations for the fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in June fell to an intraday low of $2.870 per million British thermal units, the weakest level since May 12, before trimming losses to trade at $2.878 during U.S. morning hours, down 4.1 cents, or 1.4%.

On Friday, natural gas prices tumbled 7.5 cents, or 2.51%, to close at $2.919. Futures were likely to find support at $2.832 per million British thermal units, the low from May 12, and resistance at $3.018, the high from May 22.

Weather forecasting models called for slightly warmer than average temperatures across the U.S. over the next ten days, although not yet enough to significantly boost cooling demand.

Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's next storage report slated for release on May 28 is expected to show a build of approximately 110 billion cubic feet for the week ending May 22.

Supplies rose by 113 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 95 billion cubic feet.

The EIA said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 92 billion cubic feet, compared to expectations for an increase of 97 billion and following a build of 111 billion cubic feet in the preceding week.

The five-year average gain for the period was an increase of 89 billion cubic feet, while supplies rose by 106 billion cubic feet during the comparable period a year earlier.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.989 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 59.0% above year-ago levels and 1.7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have made up for most of last winter’s unusually strong demand.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in July shed 27 cents, or 0.46%, to trade at $59.45 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery dipped 0.18% to trade at $1.953 per gallon.