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Gold ticks up amid weak China PMI data, Fed rate hike possibility

Published 09/01/2015, 12:52 PM
Updated 09/01/2015, 01:02 PM
Gold gained more than $7 an ounce on Tuesday to close above $1,140

Investing.com -- Gold futures rose moderately on Tuesday amid a weaker dollar, as further indications of a weakening economy in China and the timing of a possible interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve remained in focus.

Gold for December delivery traded in a range between $1,333.70 and $1,147.30 an ounce, before settling at $1,140.40, up 7.90 or 0.70% on the session. Following a four-day losing streak last week, gold futures have now closed higher in three of the last four sessions. The precious metal has gained approximately 4% in value over the last month of trading.

Gold likely gained support at $1,108.50, the low from August 18 and was met with resistance at $1,169.80, the high from Aug. 24.

In overnight trading, China's official manufacturing purchasing index (PMI) slumped to a three-year low in August, falling to 49.7 from a reading of 50 in July. Any reading below 50 typically provides an indication that the sector is on the verge of suffering a recession. Separately, Caixin's index of smaller factories in China plunged to a six-year low of 47.3 in August from 47.8 in July. The world's second largest economy is on pace for its slowest expansion in nearly a decade, amid sharp decreases in exports and structural shifts in its productivity, capital and workforce.

Also on Tuesday, Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, expressed significant concern with the steep transition the Chinese economy faces in the coming months in her first public comments since the People's Bank of China rattled global equity markets last week. Speaking in Jakarta, Lagarde cautioned investors on the spillover effects that could be created from persisting weakness in China's economy.

"As the Chinese economy is adjusting to a new growth model, growth is slowing—but not sharply, and not unexpectedly. The transition to a more market-based economy and the unwinding of risks built up in recent years is complex and could well be somewhat bumpy," Lagarde said. "That said, the authorities have the policy tools and financial buffers to manage this transition. Other emerging economies, including Indonesia, need to be vigilant to handle potential spillovers from China’s slowdown and tightening of global financial conditions."

China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer behind India.

In the U.S. the PMI index for August fell to 53.0, below a level of 53.8 a month earlier. The reading fell within the consensus range of forecasts between 52.7 and 54.0. Still, manufacturing growth slowed to its lowest level since October, 2013, amid weakness in new orders and moderate gains in backlog orders.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell to an intraday low of 95.21 before rebounding slightly to 95.53 in U.S. afternoon trading. The index was on pace for its third consecutive losing session.

Investors could be hesitant to make any significant trades ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting beginning on Sept. 17. Last week, Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer sent strong indications that the U.S. central bank could raise short-term interest at the meeting.

Silver for December delivery gained 0.034 or 0.23% to 14.620 an ounce.

Copper for December delivery fell 0.037 or 1.59% to 2.300 a pound.

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