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Gold Futures - Weekly Outlook: October 10 - 14

Published 10/09/2016, 06:21 AM
Updated 10/09/2016, 04:21 PM
Gold futures lose 4.9% for the week

Investing.com - Gold prices ended lower on Friday, reversing earlier gains, as disappointing U.S. employment data was seen as unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s plan for raising interest rates before the end of the year.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped $1.10, or 0.09%, to settle at $1,251.90 a troy ounce by close of trade.

The contract slumped to $1,243.20 earlier in the session, a level not seen since June 7, before climbing to as high as $1,267.60 in the immediate aftermath of weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.

The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs last month, down from a gain of 167,000 in August, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0%, the Labor Department said Friday. Market analysts had expected 176,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold at 4.9%.

Hourly wages for private sector workers rose 2.6% in September from the same month a year earlier, in line with expectations.

Despite the lackluster report, the slowdown was not expected to prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates later this year. Markets are currently pricing in around a 65% chance of a rate hike at December's meeting, According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

For the week, the yellow metal ended with a loss of $64.60, or 4.9%, the worst one-week performance since mid-September 2013, amid growing expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

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The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, ended the week at 96.65, down 0.1% on the day. The index had climbed to a more than two-month high of 97.21 prior the release of the U.S. jobs report.

For the week, the greenback gained 1.3% amid growing expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by the end of the year.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery inched up 3.5 cents, or 0.2%, on Friday to settle at $17.38 a troy ounce. The contract fell to $17.11 earlier Friday, the lowest since June 24. On the week, silver tanked $1.88, or 9.55%.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery tacked on 0.8 cents, or 0.37%, on Friday to end at $2.163 a pound. For the week, New York-traded copper prices dropped 3.1 cents, or 2.09%.

In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting for fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

U.S. retail sales data will also be in the spotlight, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs before the end of the year.

In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap, including Chair Janet Yellen, as traders look for more clues on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

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Elsewhere, China is to release what will be closely watched trade and inflation data amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 10

Financial markets in Japan, the U.S. and Canada will remain closed for public holidays.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak on monetary policy and the economy at 10:00PM ET (2:00GMT on Tuesday).

Tuesday, October 11

Japan is to release data on the current account.

Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

In the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is to deliver comments at 11:00AM ET (15:00GMT).

Wednesday, October 12

The U.S. is to produce data on job openings and labor turnover, while the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting.

In addition, New York Fed President Bill Dudley speaks with the Business Council of New York State at 8:00AM ET (12:00GMT), while Kansas City Fed President Esther George speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Payments Symposium at 9:40AM ET (13:40GMT).

Thursday, October 13

China is to publish a report on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, import prices and crude oil stockpiles.

Friday, October 14

The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its financial stability review, which is an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

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China is to produce data on consumer and producer price inflation.

Switzerland is to publish data on producer prices.

The Bank of England will release its credit conditions survey, which includes detailed data on secured and unsecured lending to households, small businesses, non-financial corporations, and non-bank financial firms.

Later in the day, the U.S is to round up the week with a string of reports on retail sales, producer prices and a preliminary look at consumer sentiment.

Finally, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak on "macroeconomic research after the crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference at 1:30PM ET (17:30GMT).

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