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Crude oil futures higher on Syria war jitters, Fed outlook

Published 08/26/2013, 04:03 AM
Updated 08/26/2013, 04:03 AM
Investing.com - Crude oil futures edged higher on Monday, as traders focused on the deepening civil war in Syria and the prospect of oil-supply disruptions.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at USD106.75 a barrel during European morning trade, up 0.3%. The October contract settled up 1.3% at USD106.42 a barrel on Friday.

Nymex oil futures held in a range between USD106.73 a barrel, the session low and a daily high of USD107.31 a barrel, the strongest level since August 19.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD103.56 a barrel, the low from August 22 and near-term resistance at USD107.53 a barrel, the high from August 19.

Growing speculation that the U.S. and other Western nations will strike in Syria continued to prop up oil prices in wake of allegations Bashar al-Assad’s government forces used chemical weaponry against civilians.

While Syria is not a major oil producer, investors fear that the two-year-old civil war could spill over to affect oil supplies in nearby countries.

Market players are also concerned about the involvement of Iran, OPEC’s sixth-biggest oil producer.

Oil prices were also supported after data on Friday showed that U.S. new home sales fell sharply last month, adding to uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may start to phase out stimulus measures.

The Commerce Department said new home sales fell by 13.4% in July, the largest decline in more than three years. Analysts had expected U.S. new home sales to fall by 2% last month.

The weak data sparked concerns over the strength of the recovery in the housing sector and fuelled speculation over whether the Fed will start to scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in September.

The minutes of the Fed’s July meeting published last week showed that policymakers remain divided over the timing of a possible reduction, with almost all committee members agreeing that a change in the asset purchase program was not yet appropriate.

The minutes described recent U.S. economic data as “mixed”, indicating that plans to taper could be pushed back if the economy was to weaken.

The central bank is scheduled to meet September 17-18 to review the economy and assess policy.

Market players were looking ahead to U.S. data on durable goods orders later in the day.

Oil traders have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

Any improvement in the U.S. economy was likely to reinforce the view that the central bank will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for October delivery dipped 0.05% to trade at USD110.99 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD4.24 a barrel.

Brent prices hit USD111.61 a barrel earlier in the session, the highest level since April 2.

London-traded Brent prices have been well-supported in recent sessions amid fears over a disruption to supplies from the Middle East and North Africa.

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for 36% of global oil production and held 52% of proved reserves in 2012.

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