Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: May 4 - 8

Investing.com - Crude oil futures rose to the highest levels of the year on Friday, before turning modestly lower as investors cashed out of the market to lock in gains from a recent rally.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in June hit an intraday high of $59.90 a barrel, the most since December 11, before closing at $59.15, down 48 cents, or 0.8%.

On the week, New York-traded oil prices increased $1.85, or 3.5%, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks.

U.S. oil futures rose almost 21% in April due to mounting expectations that U.S. shale oil production has peaked and may start falling in the coming months amid an ongoing collapse in rigs drilling for oil.

Industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 24 last week to 679, the 21st straight week of declines and the lowest level since September 2010.

Market players have been paying close attention to the shrinking rig count in recent months for signs it will eventually reduce the glut of crude flowing into the market.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, fell for the first time in almost six months last week, dropping by 500,000 barrels to 61.7 million.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels last week to 490.9 million barrels, the most in at least 80 years, even as drilling activity fell.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for June delivery touched a session peak of $66.93 a barrel, a level not seen since December 9, before ending at $66.78 by close of trade on Friday, down 32 cents, or 0.48%.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures tacked on 99 cents, or 1.81%, the fourth straight weekly advance.

Brent futures increased nearly 19% in April as some investors bet that a bottom had been reached after a nine-month long rout. But prices are still down approximately 43% since June, when futures climbed near $116.

Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $7.63 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $8.13 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.53% on Friday to settle at 95.38. On Thursday, the index slumped to a nine-week low of 94.47.

The dollar regained ground on Friday amid signals that the U.S. economy may be stabilizing after a recent bout of weakness.

Reports on Friday showed that activity in the manufacturing sector was stable in April, after slowing in the five previous months, while consumer sentiment improved to its highest level since January last month.

On Thursday, weekly claims data showed that the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell to a 15-year low of 262,000 last week, fuelling optimism that the U.S. economy has turned a corner after a recent soft patch.

Data published Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy grew just 0.2% in the three months to March, slowing from 2.2% in the final quarter of 2014. It was the slowest rate of growth in a year.

The weaker-than-expected data prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve to later this year from midyear.

In its rate statement on Wednesday the Federal Reserve said recent indications of a slowdown in growth were probably due to “transitory factors.”

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, for a fresh indication on the strength of the economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 4

Markets in Japan and in the U.K. are to remain closed for holidays. China is to release revised private sector data on manufacturing activity.

The euro area is to produce revised data on manufacturing activity, while the U.S. is to publish figures on factory orders.

Tuesday, May 5

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a holiday.

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance and construction sector activity, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.

Wednesday, May 6

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for holidays. China is to produce private sector activity on service sector growth.

The U.S. is to release its monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report while the government will publish its weekly report on oil inventories. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington DC.

Thursday, May 7

The U.K. is to hold general elections.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 8

The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be the closely watched government nonfarm payrolls report.