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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: May 2 - 6

Published 05/01/2016, 05:28 AM
Updated 05/01/2016, 11:28 AM
© Reuters.  Oil futures dip slightly on Friday but tally a monthly gain of nearly 20%

Investing.com - Oil futures pulled back from the highest level since November on Friday, as news of a monthly climb in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries underlined concerns over a global supply glut.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for June delivery rallied to an intraday peak of $48.29 a barrel, the most since November 9, before turning lower to close at $47.37, down 40 cents, or 0.84% for the day.

OPEC's oil output in April rose to the highest level in recent history, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as production increases led by Iran and Iraq more than offset a strike in Kuwait and other outages.

According to the survey, OPEC’s April output increased to 32.64 million barrels a day from 32.47 million barrels a day a month earlier, reiterating concerns related to the massive supply glut on global energy markets.

Despite Friday’s modest decline, London-traded Brent futures rose $3.00, or 6.69%, on the week, the fourth straight weekly gain. For the month, prices soared 21.5%.

Brent futures prices are up by roughly 45% since briefly dropping below $30 a barrel in mid-February, despite the collapse of talks at a Doha summit in April aimed at achieving a production freeze among OPEC and Non-OPEC producers. OPEC meets on June 2 in Vienna and may discuss the freeze initiative again.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in June dipped 11 cents, or 0.24%, to end the week at $45.92 a barrel. Prices hit $46.78 earlier, a level not seen since November 4.

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For the week, New York-traded oil futures advanced $2.17, or 5.01%, the fourth consecutive weekly rise. The U.S. benchmark ended April with a gain of nearly 20%.

Nymex oil prices are up nearly 50% since falling to 13-year lows at $26.05 on February 11, as a decline in U.S. shale production boosted sentiment. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said Friday the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 11 last week to 332, a fresh six-year low. At this time last year, drillers were operating 679 oil rigs.

However, analysts warned that market conditions remained weak due to an ongoing glut. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.0 million barrels last week to a record-high of 540.6 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate crude contract stood at $1.45, compared to a gap of $1.74 by close of trade on Thursday.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Oil traders will also keep an eye out for monthly manufacturing data from the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the global economy. The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations and manufacturing numbers are used as indicators for fuel demand growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 2

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on manufacturing activity.

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Tuesday, May 3

China is to release data on the private sector Caixin manufacturing index.

Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, May 4

The U.S. is to release the monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report as well as data on the ISM non-manufacturing index, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, May 5

The U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 6

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, while Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

Latest comments

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