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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

Looking for recessions is an obsession for some folks. Every wobbly update, every release of bad news is a new excuse to see trouble around the next bend. But crying 'fire' in the theater of ...
New residential housing construction bounced back in July. Although the consensus forecast was looking for a handsome rebound, the actual results were substantially better than expected. Housing ...
Housing starts are expected to total 937,000 in tomorrow’s update for July, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection ...
The last decade or so has witnessed a productive run of research on the ever-topical issue of detecting market bubbles in real time. Quite a lot of attention has recently been focused on a series of ...
US industrial production in June is projected to increase 0.3% vs. the previous month in Friday’s release (Aug. 15) from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric ...
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in the July report (scheduled for release on Aug. 13) vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The ...
Worrying about risk witnessed a revival last week amid a mix of heightened concerns on geopolitical and economic fronts. But the US stock market, although off its recent highs lately, remains a ...
Treasury yields fell again yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year rate slipping to 2.43% at Thursday’s close—marking a 13-month low. More of the same is on tap at the moment: Early trading on Friday ...
Late last month I wondered if lower yields were signaling higher risk? The question still resonates. Indeed, the benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is under 2.50% again, or near the lowest levels ...
The economic trend for the US remained positive in early August, albeit at a relatively subdued level in comparison with recent history, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The...