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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

It’s still touch and go with risk warnings according to stock market volatility, but the ongoing threat pulled back from extreme levels yesterday. The VIX (a measure of the implied volatility of the ...
Economic worries for the global economy are again taking a toll on sentiment these days, but the US macro trend shows few signs of stress, based on data through September. It remains to be seen if the...
The crowd’s been repricing Treasuries lately on expectations that deflation risk is on the rise… again. But there’s no sign of it in the latest economic reports for the US. Why the disconnect? ...
The sharp losses in the stock market lately suggest that the U.S. economy faces a new round of headwinds. Yet there’s no sign of trouble from Thursday’s updates on jobless claims and industrial ...
Housing starts are expected to increase to an annual pace of 999,000 in tomorrow’s update for September, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric ...
US industrial production in September is projected to increase 0.2% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s report from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for...
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in tomorrow’s September report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction reflects a substantial...
There are many risks with blindly following models, but one of the more pernicious hazards is overlooking the problems that arise from assuming that in-sample results will hold up with out-of-sample ...
The Federal Reserve recently introduced a new monthly measure of the US labor market—the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI)—and starting this week the series is available on the St. Louis Fed’s FRED...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) dipped moderately in September vs. the previous month. GMI, an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is currently...