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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

US economic growth is on track to decelerate in this year’s fourth quarter, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. Today’s initial GDP estimate for ...
Paul Krugman seems to be having a supply-side-economics moment… sort of. Raising taxes, the NY Times columnist and Nobel laureate has been arguing lately, threatens Japan’s fragile economic recovery. ...
The first hint that the global economy’s recent weakness is creeping into the US arrived in today’s preliminary November update of the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This ...
The outlook for the global economy is suffering these days, but there’s still no clear sign that the deceleration in macro activity has infected the US. Based on the latest numbers for October, the ...
New York Fed President William Dudley is inclined to ignore the recent drop in inflation forecasts via the Treasury market. In a speech last week, he explained that “in assessing inflation ...
The momentum factor in asset pricing is widely recognized and respected, but there’s nothing close to consensus on the best definitions for what is arguably the most durable ...
US industrial production in October is projected to increase 0.2% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s report from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for ...
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in tomorrow’s October report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction reflects a substantial ...
The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center generated media attention recently with a new forecast of a 65% probability of a global recession next year, a contraction that will lead to a US downturn by the end...
The US economic trend remained positive in early November, rebounding from last month’s decline, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed ...