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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

It’s widely recognized that the manufacturing sector is highly sensitive to the business cycle. Employment trends in this corner tend to react earlier to macro distress compared with payrolls ...
Has the slow decline in the pace of consumer price inflation in the US hit bottom? If so, is that good news for the economy? A cautious “yes” applies in both cases, albeit with the usual caveats. ...
I’m always on the prowl for rebalancing opportunities—in particular, those moments when the odds look unusually high for success in one or more ETFs. Instances of screaming buys or sells are rare, of ...
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly to -0.26 in the March update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (April 21), according to...
So much for pessimism. Most of the key economic reports for March are in and the general message looks encouraging… again. You can never say anything definitive about the business cycle in real time, ...
There are many victories worthy of celebration in the field of macroeconomics. Banishing the business cycle to the dustbin of history isn’t one of them. Periods of economic contraction are ...
'New Abnormal' No Longer A Market Threat
By 
 - Apr 17, 2014
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There’s a growing list of economic clues that suggest that the moderate pace of expansion, although battered and bruised in January and February, revived last month. Consider yesterday’s update on ...
The Federal Reserve is mulling a new set of tougher banking rules to boost the odds that the financial system will remain sufficiently liquid when the next crisis strikes. It’s a worthy goal, ...
Housing starts are expected to total 930,000 in tomorrow’s update for March, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents ...
US industrial production in March is projected to increase by 0.2% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s release from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric ...