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US Sugar No11 Futures - Oct 14 (SBV4)

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16.31 -0.13    (-0.79%)
01/08 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type: Commodity
Group: Agriculture
Unit: 1 Pound

  • Prev. Close: 16.44
  • Open: 16.46
  • Day's Range: 16.21 - 16.48
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US Sugar No11 16.31 -0.13 (-0.79%)
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US Sugar No11 Contracts



   
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US Sugar No11
 
 
 
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Latest US Sugar No11 Comments

mark w
mark w Jul 31, 2014 06:49PM GMT
At 16.43 (now), sugar is within pips of the suggested fib 61.8% target at 16.37. Price is pressing hard against the lower Bollinger channel on the daily, and on MACD, only the 26 day moving average has any space for further downward movement. Also, physically counting the waves, we could now be at the bottom of wave three down - of five waves, within wave 'c' of an a,b,c correction. If my count is correct, wave four within 'c' should take price higher, possibly tomorrow? However, underscoring all of this is the upward thrust of the dollar after months of not doing much. If dollar finds a top and rolls over soon, we can expect many markets, likely sugar too, to respond favourably. But the opposite is also true. Ther is sensible resistance at, and just below current levels.. In a strange twist, higher dollar means sugar producers are already getting more money for their product, so although sugar is descending in price, in real terms price is relatively stable. We should know within a few days or at worse a couple of weeks, if sugar is close to bottom. I am half expecting to see some sideways trading soon (range trading between 16.37 and 16.80 - ish perhaps)? . If price continues to press further down relentlessly, then a total re-think will be called for.
HY Lo
HY Lo Aug 01, 2014 01:33AM GMT
Thanks Mark for the detailed analysis.

HY Lo
HY Lo Jul 30, 2014 03:57AM GMT
Mark, thanks for sharing. What price do you expect to the forth and fifth wave? I am not so familiar with E waves. Right now still looks like sell signal. Cheers. :)
mark w
mark w Jul 30, 2014 08:38AM GMT
Hi HY Lo, working with Fibonacci relationships, if wave 3 is typical 1.618 x wave one then it should bottom at 16.495 then bounce. Typically 38.2% bounce would lift price then to 16.82. Followed by a wave five equal to 100% x wave one, i.e. minus another 51pips, which would theoretically take price down to 16.31? Hope this of help, but please remember is idealistic theoretical model. Best wishes, M
HY Lo
HY Lo Jul 31, 2014 04:29AM GMT
Thanks Mark. :)

mark w
mark w Jul 29, 2014 06:39PM GMT
Strong movement down on the daily, indicative of a 3rd wave (price currently 16.62). It will be interesting to see where it finds a floor and bounces. After which, hopefully we can look forward to a fifth and final wave down to end consolidation and the resumption of bullishness?. Note: the dollar has gained strength lately, pressurizing markets.
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