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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
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Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
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232.43
-7.92(-3.30%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption fell 1% in the year ended October 2022 amid surging prices as the country’s bean production was slashed by drought in the past season, industry group Abic says in a Thursday report. • Consumption totaled 21.3m bags, the lowest since 2020• Grounded and roasted coffee demand dropped 1.1% to 20.3m bagso Prices to consumers rose 35.4% in 2022 y/y• Soluble coffee consumption rose 1.4% to 998,660 bags
MG@ "the copy-paste man" when sees on a wall written "cow" he understands its a cow!
You better start reading the news, I noticed there is a delay before the information reaches you.
At the same time R export fell about 50% and A export was second on record. Domestic consumption is roasters based number, it doesn't count some other consumption which was previously viewed about 1mb. I never knew even one person, who stopped drinking coffee because of the price. If the guy needs three cups a day, he will replace one cup on the way to work by one at home and so on... :)
As said before....many are getting bullish here....time to start shorting KC, down to 130-132!
By Gabriela Brumatti São Paulo, 02/03/2023 - The director of Purchasing at Illycaffè, Alessandro Bucci, said he was optimistic about the 2023/24 Brazilian harvest and believes that the season will be more positive for production than in the previous cycle. After visiting the company's coffee suppliers, Bucci assessed that the health of the plants is very good and at healthy levels. “The 2023/24 crop in Brazil gives the feeling that it will be better than 2022, which was very resistant due to weather events”, he guaranteed, in a meeting with journalists this Thursday, in São Paulo. Bucci said that the rainfall in the country has been very intense since October, but this has not affected the coffee plantations. “Plant health is very positive, as is health, in terms of grain dominance. The feeling is that it will be a good volume (in 2023/24), with a good yield for the producer”, highlighted.
Despite the interest, it still seems like a coherent statement.
He sampled 18 million m2.....what a joke !
Sam Houston...also curious what the weekly is going to show tonight.
ICE Stocks -320 bags in NY, Pending bags -1.495 bags in AN, Total ICE 840.155 bags
Give us some more contribution to the forum by copy/pasting articles whole world can.google. great contribution for an insider ! What a .......
These companies mentioned, I'm sure they fulfill their commitments, ningue vai ficar devendo cafe desde outubro, your history is looking like a $ 7.00 bill
Furthermore, their private and Magalomaniac histories are of no interest to Forum participants, as they are hard to believe.
By USDA (BRL) average yield 2002 to 2017 was in 23 - 27 range. From 27 in 2016 ON crop it went to 32.3 in 2018 ON crop, then to 33.3 in 2020 ON crop. 2016 27.1 to 2018 32.3 - it was 5.2b/ha or roughly 20% in a very short period of time. Total increase 2002 - 2020 - about 40%. What caused 20% rise in one year: cheap inputs, new tech and improved management, supportive weather and ... luck. USDA stated historical uniformity for flowering (means crop/yiled) for record years. Uniformity could be provided by approaching historical drought in its very early stage (change in pattern) and superb nutrition based on price and weather. Important factors in their positive maximums crossed within some short period of time. If it's not gonna be case for a while, which yield may reasonably be expected ? Could it be previous 27b/ha or below ? Brazilian coffee industry exists for ages and developing constantly so, hardly the rise in yield of 20% in one year can be explained by something else... or can it ? :)
Water stress is the best way to create uniform flowering, proved by many stadies and suggested quite some time ago for well irrigated farms. Could mother nature in cooperation with cheap ferts make a gift for a couple of years ? :) Who thinks what ?
(I was able to find mentioning of 15% of yield increase in a case of perfectly uniform flowering for irrigated farms).
Including OFF years, 2002 - 2020 yield range is roughly 15 - 33b/ha what makes it much more impressive improvement wise :).
This forum starts to be bullish lightly....time to get heavy short because of it, definitively.
Top 5 producers of A, rough, recent (USDA based): 1) Brazil - 40mb; 2) Colombia - 11.8mb; 3) Ethiopia - 8.25mb; 4) Honduras - 4.8mb; 5) Peru - 4mb. Recent yields: Colombia, Ethiopia, Peru < (below) 15b/ha; Honduras - about 17b/ha, Brazil - 26b/ha. Colombia and Honduras yields peaked around 2017 and since then didn't get back to their record numbers. Ethiopia for 8.25mb production has 3.45mb domestic consumption so, balance is about 4.75mb. All SA and CA origins recorded substantial rise in ferts/chemicals prices and wet weather. USDA in Dec 2022 revised Honduras production to 4.8mb and Colombian to 11.8mb. Planted/harvested areas in Honduras in 17/18 (7.5mb) and 21/22 (4.8mb) are roughly the same. Thus, it should be all about yield for Honduras: about 27b/ha in 16/17 and 17/18 MY and ... about 17b/ha in MY 21/22. Diff is 10b/ha or about 37%. Question: what were the reasons for that, a specially if to consider that in 2019 price trend reversed to upside? :)
Paper exercise :) : Average yield in Brazil in 2014 was 26b/ha. If to project it onto 1902k productive :) ha it will be roughly 50mb. CONAB 1st vision of 23 crop was roughly 55mb: 37.4mb A + 17.5mb R. 50mb falls within +/-10% rate of mistake as it was considered for CONAB in a past... USDA rough R figure of 23mb --> exessive rains, ferts, etc --> 20% - 30% reduction --> (16.1 - 18.4mb) range; rough figure for A 42mb :) --> 10 - 15% reduction --> (35.7 - 37.8mb) range, total crop (51.8mb - 56.2mb) range.:)Again, this is just paper exercise :), but can rains/ferts work for Brazil in same way as for Honduras, Colombia, etc ? :) And important point: USDA revision for Honduras was about 600k bags for 21/22 or 600/5400 --> 11% and 5400mb is not even 6000mb (projection was lowered without frost, drought, etc).
Brazil is viewed as the one who must be always saving the day because there is no other option currently (may be finish labs will support the market soon :)). If one day this concept will fail market will see a good intertainment :).
Sorry, 5.4mb and 6mb in relation to Honduras !***
Yesterday's GAP, ended today
now surely will flush badly but i use a cw expiry end june so i dont like it that much
The speed of the return after closing the gap activated some bears. 178/179 support, which if broken we could test the 170 in the next few days.
Maks Mars...set my trailing stop around 181...waiting for 174 to close...maye go long for short bounce...
Exports from Honduras, +31.8% in February 2023. The increase in Pending Bags in the ICE in recent days may be related to the increase in exports from Centrals.
31% is how many bags?
around +159.8 k bags YoY
This clearly shows market bias. 160k up is bearish while 1.3mln drop is ignored 👎
MGom@ you dont post today Cecafe ? Wondering why !
sorry, the computer is slow.
Probably 2.2-2.3mln final number.
ICE Stocks -320 bags, Zero new pending bags, Total ICE 841.954 bags (ICE Stocks +Pending).
This calculation is still valid with so low January and February numbers?
Yes, and with fev23 around 2.31M bags
Where from 3 mil bags for next three months ? JUNE & JULY will be simply NO coffee from BRAZIL
What happened? Downfall malted ?
Nic pinbar.
DXY flush
day trader zeroing out positions.
And at the same time robusta is 2% up. Who is cheating.
And Cecafe, sealed by custom today ? :) A - 435 bags ?
CECAFE, posted above Viriato@
How do you know if coffee is old or new one?
broke 2 and a half-month uptrend. maybe we'll go short for a whike
yes, downvote because of your wishful thinking guys
Sometimes it's good to switch to longer timeframe charts. Weekly chart is very clear and shows that initial move reached obvious 200 level resistance and started pulling back. Regular correction to 61.8 and 78.6 FIBs would bring it to 164 and 154 levels, and this would be just ... very regular and nothing else (50 FIB comes at 170 level if anything...:) ). Thus, until at least 150 is touched/breached it seems to be a bit premature to consider all is done and gone. :) If this is gonna be the case and if to assume flatter gradient, it should all be over before the end of August or, if to rephrase - before frost season starts... :)
For me 140 area was kinda line in the sand from the beginning of the move from 2019 cyclical (as I see it) low. A lot of people smiled back then, but we reached 140 and bounced :) to 200. There were views of 120 and 100 coming right after 140 which haven't materialized till now as there were views that after 140 it will not bounce even to 170, etc. Well, KC has life of its own, as MGom mentioned several time... :).
ShortDude If you mean new high in 50 years - I don't know :) (belief is not guarantee :) ), if you mean next move up - nope, it's gone come within a year from now or so, if anything. I'm scared to get short side cause I don't want to get caught and I view next up move bigger than current pullback so, for me it is justified. :) Short is same as long, but with commodities it requires much more skills and luck :).
On weekly chart KC is back to trading channel and steeper gradient points to May as the end of the pullback. For steeper gradient the 154 level is roughly the intersection with lower channel support, for flatter gradient 154 level is well inside the channel. May - August look to be deciding months... :)
Adding 1 more long here at 182. I am done for now. Sit and wait.
Ecom is very bullish till new crop as much as they have been bearish in Sep22 and we have seen what happened. Talking from a meeting with them now.
Cecafe shipments want make it 2 mil Feb23 and you can have in cue for ICE certs as much as you want, its houvering at history low. High hopes for ICE certs and low never seen before in more then 30 years ! Funny hopes !
game over meant game over
wiiiiiii
What's happening? Does anyone have an explanation?
I expected more support around 182 when 187 resistance didn't hold...see volume up and bollingers opening up..think quick move to 174 if we don't see some support here...the day is still long though:)
BRL could help push KC lower today.
Did ICE scare the market so much? It seems that all the bullish news was already priced in. Let's go to 100 again! ;)
+50k Pending Bags X -1.2M started the fight. I liked the opponents.
50k>1.2M!
For a real spike the catalyst is needed. It's not gonna go 100 points or more :) without a propper catalyst. When last big run started in 2010, narration had suggested that for A specifically, lower production in CA and lowest in about 30 years or so in Colombia was the reason. In MYs 08/09, 09/10, 10/11 (run ended up collapsaing in 2011) Colombian production was abouit 8mb while normal would be about 11.5 - 12mb. Thus, if to consider that it was all true :), the diff between normal :) Colombian harvest and low was about 3.5 mb, or let's say 7mb (2 MY accumulated) was enough to trigger the run (about 10.5mb for 3 consecutive MYs). After short consolidation around 135 level in 2010 KC went up over $3 mark and then collapsed. The idea of the example is that as the real part of the spike is squeeze/covering, huge fundamental disbalance may not really be needed... Nobody knows what exactly KC is gonna be doing next, but the scale of the problems now and back then don't look the same... And Colombian production after reaching 14mb went back to 10-11mb as CA production is also lower, etc... (if to believe it :))
Is it just me, or rumors re much smaller R crop in Indonesia started spreading around?
R harvest (southern sumatra) is seen lower for 7-10% or more due to ... exessive rains... :) From projected 10mb to 9mb or so... It is good to know that average R yield in Indonesia is considered to be below 15b/ha, trees are not superproductive varieties, famrers use small amount of ferts and chemicals, etc so, the expected drop is relatively not that big percentage wise (in Colombia over 20% as example). R production in Brazil is very technological :) and if to assume that exessive rains affect R production, drop of 20% would not be out of the question. Of USDA rough 22mb number - 20% will make 17.6mb.
May be it is just me cause I was waiting for it:), but it seems that narration towards lower production at different origins started accelerating... :) Sumatra has active Kerinci volcano, if heavy erruption will happen it may will affect climate there for motnhs...
Reports are that Central America is finalizing its harvest and entering peak coffee marketing period. With the front spread (difference between March and May futures) still facing a significant premium, the cost to carry coffee for another 2 months at origin is 4-7 cents/lb. The pace of sales has been reflected in the softening of differentials in some markets, notably Brazil and Honduras, to more normalized levels.
Pending bags in iCE, could now be Honduran coffees ?
It appears that @Coffee KC is well informed about the Diffs, to say the least, and thinking they are increasing X NY. Truly an expert !!
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