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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
232.43
-7.92(-3.30%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

A question to the chat: who believes we'll see 210 today?:)
 Almost there!!!
213 is on the way abd touched already
 Done deal!!!
500? The pandemic isnt over yet. New waves around the World, the fear from new restrictions will make it difficult for the price coffee to reach these levels.
 I disagree, although the difference is not that big. But when all is closed retailers don't keep the stock.
Its Psychological. With new restrictions and lockdowns, The market will go down.
you sound like Houston thinking coffee cares about anything other than brazil’s harvest and sometimes little graphs and charts with their cute candles and other emoticons they make.
Expecting a bounce today. Friday was most likely profit taking for the week.
btw Friday was very bullish imo... big buy orders happened around 190 on Thursday. and on friday.. I was expecting revisiting 190 range Friday for profit taking.. but I was more waiting for a waterfall below 190.. which did not happen.. no stops were triggered.. instead big orders also came in Friday in that 190 area again.. keep this in mind if ur short or looking for short entry
when price was in the 90s.. Daniel ignajovitc made a bold prediction in this forum about 500 dollar coffee whenever cycle occurs.. Let me make another bold prediction... If indeed coffee reaches a new record high such as 400 or 500... this cycle will represent the transition point out of Brazilian coffee and into Asian and South Asian coffee worldwide.. I hope Brazilians use the money and gains (if new ATH) to repurpose their land and maybe learn new skills as well...this whole concept of Brazilian coffee we grew up on will be wiped and replaced
 100%. In 2010-11 some traders believed that from the 220 level  the market will start correcting to 180, and it'll take a month or so. It never did. Next month candle went straight up.  If this forecast for a possible frost will prove itself, no one will be waiting for the evaluation of the damage. May see 300 - 350 in  a week. No one knows if it will happen, of course, but the risk is very real. (Coffee is famous about overcoming "shooting starts" with the next candles.)
 Beautiful, intelligent and logical talk. I was thinking about it and wondering if India and China started to love drinking coffee, which is very expected because the percentage of coffee consumers, not just the number, is steadily increasing, even among young people and young people, and not as it was before
 sky the limit, that's why I scare to short evem with 300
As media does its job, now a lot of traders know that a critical cold may occur in the end of the month, and initial fear has already been seeded. In 2010-2011 not many traders believed that cotton will reach what it reached. But it did. And what was most funny - a very small quantity of contracts, needed to produce limit up days on the way up. Shorts,  be very very nimble and cautious!
will we see 500? where is daniel?
Honestly, I hope we don't see 500, 300, 250. At least for frost. Don't think of Brazil as gigantic farms, here where I live there is a large number of producers from 4, 6 to 10 hectares. It is the livelihood of many people.
 True. Absolutely. And it is a very hard business indeed. The one that has been at the small/medium size farm, a specially elevated, knows this for a fact. A real frost for the small grower means catastrophe. Correctly oriented speculators will profit but not the farmer.
Why all the talk suddenly on a Sunday night? Is this on the back of that Bloomberg article?
The damage has been done. And the damage is now a structural damage in the Brazilian coffee sector. For next week, between Wednesday and Friday there is a new polar mass in formation. According to the models presented, the information indicates an even more intense, colder polar mass, with forecasts of snow and temperatures reaching -15/-20 degrees celsius in some regions of the southern region and -5/-8 degrees celsius in the States of Southeast region (mainly in the main coffee producing states: São Paulo and Minas Gerais). Meteorologist Ronaldo Coutinho da Clima Terra estimates a cold as intense as that of 1955!
-20C? Where?! Do not sell panic.
Sul de Minas wind chill under (20) C
These temperatures of -15 and -20 are for southern Brazil. I hope it doesn't. I think the low-income and homeless people are not prepared for this.
New York Stock Exchange was again forced to increase the “initial margin” value from US$4,000 per contract to US$7,500 per contract. Making a basic "bakery" account with the open position at 364,754 lots only the difference in the initial margin call required +2,553,278,000 US$ (+1.27 Billion US$ for the participant with long position and + $1.27 billion for the participant with the short position). This open position represents 103,407,759 bags of coffee. Considering the increase of +3,500 points (approximately 46 US$/bag), the call for additional margin for “solds” represented another disbursement of approximately 4,756,756,914 US$ (4.8 Billion US$)! In one week the market needed to find approximately 7,310,034,914 US$ (7.3 BILLION US$)!! That's a lot of money to be retained as a “guarantee”!
This is what I was saying last week while referring to the danger of shorting commodity in bull/weather market, even knowing that at some point the correction will sure take place. A lot of small traders don't pay attention to the initial margin size as a function of volatility.  A lot of small accounts will find themselves in "forced position trimming" situation on Monday.
covered my puts into the drop below 190 as there is strong support H4 @ 8 SMA...that is a bounce point based on techs only, which cannot be ignored. Let's see if it can take out Friday's highs...which would then induce more short covering....Break below Fridays lows opens door to 1.85 and then 1.75.....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-23/coffee-stockpiles-turn-to-gold-after-shock-to-global-supplies?sref=flDg8CXF as per above article : Crop losses for next year’s harvest in Brazil may range from 4.05 million to 5.2 million bags, according to an Ecom Research report seen by Bloomberg.
Ecom Research report seen by Bloomberg. - where to find?
 its mention on the article i copy paste from there
COT: The funds increase long and liquida short positions, as shown in the last COT of 07/20/21, the NET position at +11.147 long contracts, +39.168 x 28,021 long contracts from the last COT.  "Protection from the next week's cold in Brazil ?" This question asked last week, seems to be confirmed, remembering that this TOC only disclosed the positions until 07/20 and the market keeps rising after 07/20. Did they continue buying?
 Yeah. That's the golden question: the new cold wave will hit coffee area? By now, yes. And probably stronger than the last one, even with black frost risk. Trend still high. I wainting an entry opportunity to buy. As I said, long term is bull, but I was sold waiting to 176.. Well, It's part. But damage on the crops is real. And drought still hurts the trees.
This is what I meant when I was saying that big players are not gonna risk. They will better cut their positions if next cold  will be proven correct.
NET long positions may increase significantly with settlement on shorts, if there is frost on the next 30th.
farout is nardelli.. we closed this chapter amicably.. have a great weekend everyone.. ill be off for a while
love you all
Gap up monday?
yeah i think so
till... and what do u think $10 or $15 up..
Depends on weather forecast.
I was warned by a huge fund manager to be careful long over the weekend.
So i guess he told you buy 3 days ago ;)
Considering the short covering at the close, you'd think no one wants to be short over the WE
you      tu.    be /    1i9uvPLPj68
Just buy baidu . You will thank me later. Have a nice weekend to you all. Hop for better trading week in the future.
and baba
And TEVA Just buy and hold You will make a lot of money.
time to buy hedge again at 191 or below...tried my best to cut my spread loss by timing hedges and scalping last 2 days... I squared the position with much less losses.. thank you for wishing me well
about 5ish loss spread in the end.. the reason I squared it is I'm very tired of trading gymnastics now
Guaxupe is valid source of information. And farmers are not interested in spikes +/- 50%. They are interested in stable prices with defined tendency. This is how any average farm works.
"According to the first reports released, the frost registered at the dawn of Tuesday (20) can result in a break of 3.25 million bags in the south of Minas Gerais, the main producer of Arabica coffee in Brazil.  This information comes from Guaxupé Coffee Cooperative, which is still gathering data of all areas affected by the frost, and up to this moment, they are indicating a potential loss of 4.5 million bags. "In our first impression, the impact on the south of minas was:  10% of the area will produce nothing next year, 5% will produce 25%, and another 5% will produce 50% of the potential", says the cooperative, referring to the 2022 Crop; Their publication also highlights that the total loss expected for the Arabica type in this region is 3.25 million bags. It is important to remember that the 2022 crop in Brazil, in theory, would return to a high cycle, due to the biennial of the coffee plants; Climate challenges, hwvr are increasingly raising uncertainties about the size of production
The question now is, will trees be pruned only or alternative planting, and is the seedling affected by frost or not? If only trees are pruned, the crop will be affected for only one year. But if new trees are planted, the effect will be for three years in the case of arable winters, and in the absence of valid seedlings due to frost, this means that production will not return to the same as it was until after five years
Support at 180, all short…
190.00 is the support level
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