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US Coffee C Futures - May 24 (KCK4)

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189.08
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

ICE -9k bags
Agricultural News: #Angel NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Commodity traders are shipping arabica coffee from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) certified warehouses in Europe to the United States, five sources told Reuters, in an unusual deal that reflects the impact that erratic weather has had. impact on the global coffee supply. Most Arabica coffee, the most widely used variety in the world, is produced in South and Central America and normally goes to Europe or the United States, the largest consumer markets. So, sending green coffee from Europe to the US, one consuming country to another, is something that rarely happens. Pulling coffee from certified stocks on the exchange, rather than sourcing it from private traders' warehouses, will drive ICE stocks even lower in a move that could lift coffee futures beyond the 10-year high reached in February. . “I don't even remember seeing any significant volume of coffee going from Europe to the US,” says an experienced coffee trader in Switzerland. He said a shipment of more than 100,000 bags of green Arabica coffee left ICE warehouses in Antwerp last week bound for ports on the east coast of the United States. Traders said an additional 250,000 bags from ICE's warehouses in Europe will head to the US in the next two months. If this is confirmed, stocks on the exchange, currently at around 1 million bags, could fall to the lowest levels since 2000.#
As if the two continents were so close together. Are you from Minas Gerais? For miners everywhere is right there :)
do you know what "demurrage" is on cargo ships? and how much does it cost per day? 30 thousand dollars a day is better to take the ship to the "right there".
Yup, and on top of port problems, some warehouses are full. This actually makes sense, demurrage feed are real these days and expensive!!
Another frost wave or what?
this is only the beginning
Today is holiday in Brazil and tomorrow despite not being a public holiday in Brazil, some operators do not work.
Low liquidity and lack of sellers. Makes sense.
CECAFE. +39,1% m/m, already projects 2.78 M bags end of jun22.
This is why market is up? Too much coffee
of course not.
Where is our Mayor? Mr. Viriato
Green Coffee up 97k bags
GCA +97k bags
GCA +97k bags mai22. Total now are 6.003.731 bags. So far no shortage of coffee
GCA +97K bags mai22, total 6.003.731 bags. So far no shortage of coffee.
I said beforenext month 250, it looks like it will hit sooner
wait day 06/23
Why?
jj
CECAFE, certs continue at a good pace, +25.5%, m/m. So far no shortage of coffee
Agree, Export volume was bigger than anticipated by many. Unanswered quesion is, what fueled this export? Better crop or undervalued brazilian stocks. Do you know?
No one knows for sure, but they have observed many producers with inventories on their farms, which makes accounting and forecasting carryover difficult.
.
South of Minas, Andradas. Today 2°.
2° is not normal, it may be for you but in a tropical country it is already synonymous with harm.
Nature field is not a greenhouse. Weather is not ideal. Enough to be not harmful.
Black frost season is july and august. . Isnt IT. ......
CECAFE, certs continue at a good pace, +10.9%, 05/13 to 06/13.
Next month back to 250
219.20 tested. Found a good volume of purchases at this level. For bulls, it is necessary to keep the market above this level. With the USDA numbers it will be a hard mission, Winter is coming.
ICE stocks down again. 1mln very close.
FND is coming. Today, BRL +1.80% and residual options liquidation is not the best combination.
Towards 219.20
The best fight against inflation is fight against high commodities prices. ;)
Migration to US Treasuries could be helping to liquidate commodities.
No frost in sight in foreseeable future. Market surroundings are scary, brave to be bull now.
Curitiba is in souther Brazil, for sure not MG. In general coffee areas are now more to north, besause of historical frosts. There was no frost today in coffee areas. Everyone can see it by PA.
When was the record frost last year. In June Or July.....???
We already have temperatures at 3° today. Any polar mass that enters the south of Brazil will take 2 to 3 days to bring down temperatures in the Southeast.
ICE down again. Soon below 1mln
At this breakneck pace, at least 15 business days. That's if the pending bags don't increase, to spoil the decline.
BRL +1,90%
COP + 2.60%
I told you...
A primary mistake, not considering or disdaining a Brazilian crop forecast by the USDA and worse, thinking that it is not bearish. The weather in Brazil (cold and rain) is an important support for prices. Technically, in the medium term, bulls remain in command above 219.20.
Well I see a beautiful daily falling wedge. Bullish right?
That's all @shortdude
* Did you sell around 255 ?
Sold at 251, covered shorts around 22xish. Then long from 215 covered around 228. As you see not ideal. Now on sidelines. Too many opposite forces to me. I start to be bearish yet winter has to be over without damage.
Better stop, breathe and analyze. Forget weird forces, this not exist, work with SLs. I'm always rooting for you.
Bought 231,50 - Good RR IMO.
Support didn´t hold up, unfortunately.
Support is around 230, still game is not over. In summary coffee is now pure weather market. Risk is very high in both directions, yet after winter without frost price should go considerably down.
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