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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
226.05
+0.15(+0.07%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

I do not like how Arabica is weak comparing to Robusta. Look at Cecafe data, we have big drop in Robusta exports, not Arabica. Big queue in ICE is not helping either.
Fundamental support intact - technical support support around current level 221,75
221 was the old resistance zone since mid July... looks like it has bounced off that zone for now which is not a surprise.... I see no weakness in Arabica yet to suggest the move up from failed breakdown of 200 wont continue. Robusta just broke through the intraday pivot at 2245 and looks like it might hold and as such today may well end up flat and the rest of the week will see further bullish moves. KC needs to clear the falling trend line from the year high pivot of 260
Opening first short at 225.43
you like it easy lol
Covered my longs for now. Robusta overbought, USD might gain some strength again. We are in strong resistance zone, profit is profit.
Back a short dude at last lol
 I am not short, covered longs and on sidelines now. Contemplating PA.
CECAFE and ICE bearish today.
I ve heard that all week.
Retendering ice stocks, I think its just bearish for the spreads. If they retender enough coffee for spreads to back in contango, then maybe we see more producer selling in the further 1-2 years out. Other option is that they just need cheap financing, until buyer takes it.
By CECAFE, arabica export in 2021 (not including torrado) was about about 32.775mb, average per month 2.73mb. For first 7 months of 2022 CECAFE shows (not including torrado) about 19.300mb of arabica being exported, what gives average per month of about 2.76mb. Total export in 2021 was about 40.61mb. If to aproximate average 2.76mb/m onto 12m we'll see about 33mb of arabica to be exported in 2022. It doesn't mean it will happen but current export in its average shows nothing dramatic. But may show in a near future :) if the assumption about much smaller crop is correct.
Agreed 👍
Also, there is a view currently, that pretty soon high energy prices will be resolved (as the war R - U) and so, it will be all back to normal, ferts prices including. God bless!!! it to become truth, but ... what if it'll not? Such an outcome is also possible, and there are some professional analysts already that are saying that high energy prices (as grains, etc) are for quite some time. It is not hard to see what it's gonna be for the farmers in relation to 2023 season and possibly beyond.
Problem is that we have 230k bags pending in ICE queue and CECAFE gaining pace.
Think I'll gamble a couple shorts here and probably end up throwing money in the garbage again
no
selloff signal this time…high priced commodities no more sustainable
The analysts Safras & Mercado have reported than an estimated total 89% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 61.10 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 54.40 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested. The coffee made up of around 21 million bags of conilon robusta coffee, for which the harvest is just about complete, and approximately 33.40 million bags of arabica coffee estimated to be harvested thus far. The pace of harvest at this time across a 5-year average is reported to be around 91%, thus illustrating that current crop harvest is almost on par in terms of timing when compared to that of the recorded five-year average.The Brazilian National Statistics Agency IBGE, with the new crop harvest almost complete has come forth with a revised estimate for the current July 2022 to June 2023 Brazil coffee crop, to revise their forecast for the biennially bearing 22/23 coffee crop higher by 0.80%, from last months estimate, to total 53.20 million bags. In this report the IBGE has estimated that the 2022 arabica coffee crop shall be 9.60% larger than the 21/22 year at a total 35.10 million bags and likewise that the 2022 Conilon robusta crop shall be 6.80% larger than the 21/22 crop year to total 18.10 million bags. The IBGE is traditionally very conservative in terms of their figures and are usually considered to be between 5% and 10% below reality. The forecast would therefore be seen to be at the lower end of independent local and international surveys, the majority of these forecasting an estimated Arabica at a median of 39 million bags and Conilon Robusta crop in the region of 23 million bags.
sell
With lower exports from Brazil in July and August, and the following months, and lower exports from Central and Colombia through December, the use of certificates will intensify. No coffee house will deliver coffee on ICE. We will see a script already written in 1997.
Hi Marco, I always appreciate your thoughts. Could you tell us your opinion why 2021/22 Brazilian export was considerably larger than you expected at the begining of the crop year? And why we have now 200k bags pending in ICE queue?
215&230,,?
today prediction ??
Nobody knows for sure how much smaller this crop is (it was reasonable to assume that it's gonna be smaller) but no matter the percentage is, it will make the stocks smaller. Is was OK to assume that there were big stocks in 2019 but as the say nothing lasts forever. Thus, any critical event (realization of much smaller crop, big drop in ICE/exports, frost, drought, ferts, etc) will be met with more panic. As next year A crop is off season crop, its importance becomes much higher. $3 level may not be the final point at all :). (Ok, that's my believe :) )
next season is a "on" season
2022/23 is on and 2023/24 is off. Although I am not sure how trees will behave after 2 years of adverse weather.
I agree 💯
Cecafe certs emission 10% lower than in July. Interesting.
ICE Pending 190k. Interesting too..
Brazilian bags down to 130k. Almost 100k drop this week. The only coffee left is aged Honduran which is only good for blending. Again, there are games being played with pending. Thats why the market has rallied. Its recertification
Is it really so important? Information is that we have 200k bags in queue. more than anticipated
is that why the market is higher? That makes zero sense. If it was bearish, the market would be going down. And the bags would not just be coming in to Belgium. Its being recertified. Old Honduran. Big penalty unless they recertify. Buys them another 4 months. And they know the price is higher in 4 months.
ICE stocks is only one piece of big market puzzle. Now I think that most important news is very low Brazilian export volume in July and yesterdays data about even slower start of August certs emission.
ICE-arabica coffee inventories on Thursday fell to a new 23-year low of 571,905, the lowest level since 1999. Clearly.
The chart is a wedge and it will break out eventually. Today we got a close that kick the algorithms to the buy side. Good luck. All this negative talk but yet hete we are at 223+.
sell
Rodrigo, this forum is composed mostly by specs that want to see a market collapse.Except, this time no one, or only a few believed the results of a freeze and a terrible drought.Agriculture? Why waste time on that...It is a non-scientific waste of time. Oh well...
Its very bullish. Inventories low harvest less then expected. There us going to be a run on coffee as they will want to get hands on supplies
I was trading puts on JO and at open (usually the time to sell options fyi) my put was up 500% but the real price was much lower. Somebody always has to fool you. for better or worse.
Just coz there isn't much liquidity in those options. The bid/ask spread is huge and can give the illusion of gains or losses
i cant understand why we didnt close the gap on the chart since 15 th July. 203 should be checked before rolling contracts this month. Ridiculous...
that's called volatility
Technically the bulls took control in the medium term.
What can you tell me about the th rise at this moment?
Strength in Technical Analysis
Supply squeeze coming. Shawn hackett called it
Entering a small long here,,, will add if the move up continues
Big crash just starting lol i totally missed that grrrrrr
you should read all the story starting earlier….i told tempted to sell again but i wont do, then appearantly headed down…i say grrrrrrrrr since I didn’t sell it and so on i m still sit here flat
Really????
Actually im reading a lot of nonsense here last couple weeks
...
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