Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious OutperformanceFind Stocks Now

Yield Curve Continues To Flatten

Published 07/23/2014, 04:27 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Chart 1: The long maturity end of the bond market has rebounded in ’14…
U.S. Long Bond vs 200DMA, 1996-Present

Long Bond Performance Source: Short Side of Long

Coming into 2014, just about every trader, investor, economist, financial forecaster, the weather man and even their dogs were anticipating a further rise in interest rates. However, when everyone thinks the same way, chances are no one is really doing any thinking at all and something completely different will happen.

After selling off sharply throughout 2013 and suffering one of the worst rolling annualised performances in the last 20 plus years, the U.S Treasury Long Bond has rebounded strongly in the first half of 2014, surprising the consensus.

Chart 2: …while the short end has sold off, flattening the yield curve

Flattening Yield Curve 1996-Present

Source: Short Side of Long

However, not all of the maturities performed as well as the 30-Year Long Bond. As we can clearly see in Chart 2, the main story of 2014 has been about the flattening yield curve. As the market started to anticipate a potential Federal Reserve hike in interest rates, the short end of the curve has began to sell off (interest rates have risen). At the same time, the rebound in prices from the long end has now flattened the yield curve to some of the lowest levels in years (Treasury 5s and 30s).

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.