WTI: Favoring A Run Up To 96.20

As I continue to build my stance on USD over the coming weeks I turn to another commodity priced in the greenback, WTI.

WTI MONTHLY:
After my call for a 'multi-week low' on Oil in December I was mildly bemused to see it break beneath this suspected swing low. However this is trading for you... So I'll pick myself up and give it another go.

Whilst technically we have been trading sideways since April 2011, the range we trade in is contracting and I see more evidence of rising swing lows than I do of lower swing highs. So whilst this may not appear to be a 'textbook' triangle I still suspect this to be a larger and complex triangle, which will eventually break to the upside. We are trading well above the 200-month eMA and holding above the 50-month eMA, of which both are pointing upwards (very slightly) to highlight increased momentum.

After a failed attempt to break and close above 100 we have now retraced all the way back down to 91.23 and respected the 50-month eMA and rising trendline. However the trendline should be used with a pinch of sale as a Bullish Hammer back in June 0'6 did penetrate this line, although we did close the month well above it. So it depends how strict you would like to be with your trendline - that said it does at least highlight the rising swing lows.

WTI WEEKLY:
The bearish decline from 100 pretty much blew a big hole in my 'multi-week low' analysis as the elongated bearish candle only suggested further downside, which we then witnessed last week. However we have held above the 200-week eMA and appear to be on track for a bullish close this week. If we close around 93-94 we will have a 2nd consecutive hammer above support to suggest near-term gains.

- In the event we do see gains my next target is 96.20 (as this has been a pivotal level of SD/R previously).
- In the event we break below support (less favoured) then next target is 88.90

DISCLAIMER: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market involves a significant and substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your age, income, personal circumstances, trading knowledge, and financial resources. Only true discretionary income should be used for trading in the Foreign Exchange market. Any opinion, market analysis or other information of any kind contained in this email is subject to change at any time. Nothing in this email should be construed as a solicitation to trade in the Foreign Exchange market.

If you are considering trading in the Foreign Exchange market before you trade make sure you understand how the spot market operates, how Think Forex is compensated, understand the Think Forex trading contract, rules and be thoroughly familiar with the operation of and the limitations of the platform on which you are going to trade. A Financial Services Guide ( FSG) and Product Disclosure Statements (PDS) for these products is available from TF GLOBAL MARKETS (AUST) PTY LTD by emailing compliance@thinkforex.com.au .The FSG and PDS should be considered before deciding to enter into any Derivative transactions with TF GLOBAL MARKETS (AUST) PTY LTD. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary. Also, see the section titled “Significant Risks” in our Product Disclosure Statement, which also includes risks associated with the use of third parties and software plugins. The information on the site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. 2013 TF GLOBAL MARKETS (AUST) PTY LTD. All rights reserved. AFSL 424700. ABN 69 158 361 561. Please note: We do not service US entities or residents.