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STOCKS: The world economy is healing. However, there remains clear headwinds to the continuation of this healing, such as the emerging market risk-reassessment and China weakening. Quite clearly, we believe risk is being mispriced at current levels given the cross-roads of QE ending and prices relative to the economic backdrop, not to mention clear pressure upon corporate revenues/margins/earnings.
STRATEGY: The S&P 500 remains above the 160-wma long-term support level at 1458. But, perhaps more importantly, the distance above the 160-wma stands at+27% — down from a high of +28%. If it expands above +30%, then an upside explosion is under way.
WORLD MARKETS HAVE EXHALED A COLLECTIVE SIGH OF RELIEF as Russia’s Putin has pulled back troops in what is being “hailed” as a de-escalation” of the Ukrainian tense situation. Make no mistake about it; this situation is far from resolved, with Russia’s Putin saying Russia reserves the right to use troops, and that the currently installed government is not legitimate given they overthrew the previous government in an armed coup. Putin is right; the Ukrainians could have waited until May to vote Yanukovich out of office; but armed militants decided that was too long to wait, and that they couldn’t control the outcome. Hence…this situation is far from over; however, the equity markets are acting as if it is and that it is positive! Such is the trading environment we stand at the moment.
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