Today we get a read on the current US employment situation when nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and average weekly wages are released for the month of February.
Nonfarm Payrolls: Currently Estimize is looking for nonfarm payrolls to come in at 230k, which would be a 10.2% decrease month-over-month (MoM), the third consecutive decline. This is on top of the January number of 257k, which followed very strong increases of 329k in December and 423k in November. The latter two months were revised, and including those revisions, November 2014 was the strongest month for payrolls since May 2010.
Average Weekly Earnings: After a robust MoM increase of 0.5% in January, the biggest improvement in about 6 years, average weekly earnings are expected to return to their muted levels in February. Estimize is looking for average weekly earnings of $857.84, a mere 0.2% increase from the prior month. However, it’s important to note that part of the boost in January was due to minimum wage increases in nine states.
Unemployment Rate: After bumping up to 5.7% in January, the Estimize community believes unemployment will return to it’s 5.6% level for February. January saw an improvement in the labor force participation rate, as signs began to emerge that discouraged workers were looking for employment opportunities once again, a positive sign for the economy.
