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Weekly Market Forecast: February 24th - 28th, 2014)

Published 02/24/2014, 07:28 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of February 24th–February 28th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, February 23rd

  • Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Monday, February 24th

  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (110.7 expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR EZ CPI (0.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR EZ Core CPI (0.8% expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, February 25th

  • 2:00am NZD Inflation Expectations (last 2.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 25th-28th GBP Nationwide HPI (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals (47.9K expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales (15 expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:45pm EUR EU Economic Forecasts (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (13.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (80.2 expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, February 26th

  • 12:30am AUD Construction Work Done (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (8.3 expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:25am GBP MPC Member Broadbent speaks (hawkish = good for currency.
  • 9:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP (0.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment (2.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD New Home Sales (406K expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last 1.0M expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:45pm NZD Trade Balance (230M expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, February 27th

  • 12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure (-1.0% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am USD FOMC Member Pianalto speaks
  • 6:45am CHF GDP (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:15am CHF Employment Level (4.22M expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change (-10K expected, < good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR EZ M3 Money Supply (1.1% expected, < good for currency)
  • Tentative EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction (< average yield and > bid to cover ratio good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Current Account (-16.5B expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (333K expected, < good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders (-0.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:45pm NZD Building Consents (7.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:30pm JPY Household Spending (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI (0.8% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:50pm JPY Preliminary Industrial Production (3.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:50pm JPY Retail Sales (3.9% expected, > good for currency)

Friday, February 28th

  • 12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence (last 64.1 expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30am AUD Private Sector Credit (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00am EUR German Retail Sales (1.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending (-0.8% expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (2.03 expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR EZ CPI Flash Estimate (0.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 10:00am EUR EZ Unemployment Rate (12.0% expected, < good for currency)
  • 10:00am USD FOMC Member Fisher speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative EUR Spanish HPI (-0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD GDP (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP (2.6% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI (57.9 expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:55pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (81.4 expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (2.9% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:15pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakotaspeaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:15pm USD FOMC Member Stein speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:30pm GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Saturday, March 1st

  • 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (50.2 expected)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3739, 1.3758/72, 1.3795/98, 1.3810/18, 1.3832/36, 1.3892, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above: 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.3714/16, 1.3703/10, 1.3685/99, 1.3682/86, 1.3664, 1.3645/50, 1.3621/31, 1.3602/14, 1.3597, 1.3546/81, 1.3538, 1.3507/24, 1.3489/1.3504, 1.3476/82, 1.3451, 1.3441, 1.3433/34, 1.3416, 1.3398/1.3409, 1.3376/89, 1.3344/53, 1.3318/24, 1.3305/08, 1.3294/99, 1.3222/42, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65, 1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and 1.3047.
Below: 1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55. 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041 and 1.1938.

USDJPY: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 102.57/69, 102.75/76, 102.82, 102.93, 103.30, 103.37/43, 103.73, 103.82, 103.91, 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.
Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.

Support:
Initial: 102.49/52, 102.14, 101.91/99, 101.83, 101.62/66, 101.52/56, 101.43, 101.22/25, 101.13/14, 100.85/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22 and100.00.
Below: 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.0593.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.6667, 1.6724, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6802, 1.6822 and 1.6874.
Above: 1.6909, and 1.7042/47.

Support:
Initial: 1.6624, 1.6611/17, 1.6592, 1.6576/77, 1.6516, 1.6484, 1.6458/64, 1.6441, 1.6417/18,1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8967/69, 0.8981/87, 0.8997/0.9008, 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9042/47, 0.9054/57, 0.9061/66, 0.9072/79, 0.9112/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9303, 0.9214/23, 0.9232, 0.9268, 0.9279/86, 0.9291, 0.9304, 0.9317/25, 0.9343/64, 0.9383/86, 0.9391/98, 0.9404, 0.9420, 0.9428/33, 0.9447, 0.9457 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.

Support:
Initial: 0.8951/57, 0.8927/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0. 8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.1120/32, 1.1172, 1.1194 and 1.1223.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.

Support:
Initial: 1.1102, 1.1089, 1.1040/50, 1.0982/90, 1.0962/66, 1.0939/45, 1.0928, 1.0909, 1.0852, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/07, 1.0676/79, 1.0668/76, 1.0659/60, 1.0646/56, 1.0621/27, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8271, 0.8285/87, 0.8291/95, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/53, 0.8359/66, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8425/47, 0.8453/59, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89, 0.8504/08, 0.8523, 0.8532, 0.8542, 0.8561, 0.8571 and 0.8584.
Above: 0.8605, 0.8641, 0.8671/74, 0.8764 and 0.8840.

Support:

Initial: 0.8263, 0.8250/55, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

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