Weekly Forex Price Action Market Commentary

GBPUSD – Pin Bars @ Resistance
While the Euro continues to be the sleepiest major out there, the GBPUSD has been more active, pressing up against the yearly resistance level at 1.6820 that we talked about in the April 16th commentary. In the last three days, the pair has formed two pin bars, with the second one being smaller than the first. 

Considering the price action has been mostly contained near resistance, this would suggest a likely break to the upside, since no real sellers are pushing back. The daily 20 EMA and dynamic support has held the downside the last time, so pullbacks to this area can be good signals to get long (~1.6700/6660) with stops below 1.6640. Upside targets can be 1.6812, and 1.6860, which is just shy of the Nov 09′ resistance at 1.6877.




Gold – Showing Some Two-Way Interest
After the dramatic sell-off from last week, the PM has been mostly confined to the 1304 – 1281 range, with the lower level being the bottom of the mini-flash crashed I talked about last week.

Today’s price action (to be taken with a grain of salt due to low volumes) showed rejection on both sides of the market, suggesting more two-way interest. 

Bulls can look for potential basing around 1278, which is the SL (swing low) from late March this year. Look for price action signals here to potentially get long, targeting 1294, 1300, and potentially a return to 1325. A daily close below here suggests more bearish-ness, and an attack on 1250 and 1238.



Dow Jones – Heading Towards Key Resistance Zone
Moving into a key resistance zone and all time highs, the US index has now closed 5 days in a row bullish. Even though the trend is clearly bullish long term, medium term we’ve been in a range between 16000 and 16600. 

There could be an opportunity to sell at the resistance levels assuming some bulls take profit ahead of them. Look for price action signals to get short between 16,550, and 16,650. A daily close above the all time highs will put pressure on 16.8K and 17K.




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