Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 19th through January 23rd
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 19th through January 23rd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, January 19th
- All Day USD Bank Holiday
- 9:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence survey 23 versus last 19 expected. The currency fell.
Tuesday, January 20th
- 2:00am CNY GDP 7.3% versus 7.2% expected.
- 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey 48.4 versus 40.1 expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales -1.4% versus -0.5% expected. The currency fell.
- Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 1.0% versus 3.6% expected. The currency fell.
- 9:45pm NZD CPI -0.2% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
Wednesday, January 21st
- 3:29am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
- "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend, and effects such as those of the decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike have been waning on the whole. Overseas economies --mainly advanced economies-- have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. In this situation, exports have shown signs of picking up." The currency fell.
- 6:30am JPY BOJ Press Conference: BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, "Consumer inflation will slow for the time being due to oil price falls, on the assumption that oil prices will flatten out at current levels and rise moderately ahead… we expect consumer inflation to reach 2 percent in a period centered on fiscal 2015." The currency fell.
- All Day ALL WEF Annual Meetings: Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations said that, “Growth has freed millions of people from poverty and hunger… but growth is also associated with pollution and an increase in emissions. Climate change has happened because of human behavior, therefore it’s only natural it should be us, human beings, to address this issue. It may not be too late if we take decisive actions today.” The currency fell.
- 9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 1.7% versus 1.7% expected. The currency fell.
- 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -29.7K versus -24.2K expected. The currency fell.
- 9:30am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 versus 2-0-7 expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales -0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.03M versus 1.06M expected. The currency fell.
- 3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report noted that, "Oil prices have plummeted over the past six months. Lower oil prices are expected to boost global economic growth while widening the divergences among economies. These developments are taking place against the backdrop of a modest pickup in global growth, as headwinds from ongoing deleveraging and lingering uncertainty gradually abate." The currency fell.
- 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, "Weaker oil prices will pull down the inflation profile. Total CPI inflation is projected to be temporarily below the inflation-control range during 2015, moving back up to target the following year. Underlying inflation will ease in the near term but then return gradually to 2 per cent over the projection horizon. The oil price shock increases both downside risks to the inflation profile and financial stability risks. The Bank’s policy action is intended to provide insurance against these risks, support the sectoral adjustment needed to strengthen investment and growth, and bring the Canadian economy back to full capacity and inflation to target within the projection horizon." The currency fell.
- 3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate Decision 0.75% versus unchanged at 1.00% expected. The currency fell.
- 4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference: BOC Governor Stephen Poloz said that, "It's really like there's two economies. For a few years, you got a really strong energy economy and a relatively lackluster non-energy economy — two speeds. Now (what) we have is the two speeds will get closer together. One is rising and the other one is falling. But the immediate part is the fall in the oil price part, and the rest is just gathering momentum." The currency fell.
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Thursday, January 22nd
- All Day ALL WEF Annual Meetings: President François Hollande of France said that, "The sources of terrorism cannot go unnamed”, referring to the jihad movement of ISIS and Al-Qaeda. “Terrorism fuels itself by way of illicit flows of drugs, money and people," he said, continuing with: “Terrorists are also using the internet as a weapon of indoctrination, manipulation and confusion.” The currency fell.
- 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Decision unchanged at 0.05% versus 0.05% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Mario Draghi said that the ECB will “launch an expanded asset purchase programme, encompassing the existing purchase programmes for asset-backed securities and covered bonds. Under this expanded programme, the combined monthly purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to €60 billion. They are intended to be carried out until end-September 2016 and will in any case be conducted until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. In March 2015 the eurosystem will start to purchase euro-denominated investment-grade securities issued by euro area governments and agencies and European institutions in the secondary market. The purchases of securities issued by euro area governments and agencies will be based on the eurosystem NCBs’ shares in the ECB’s capital key.” The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 307K versus 301K expected. The currency rose.
Friday, January 23rd
- 1:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.8 versus 49.5 expected. The currency fell.
- All Day ALL WEF Annual Meetings: John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State said that, "To effectively combat violent extremism over the long term, we need to better understand the underlying conditions, we can’t change minds without knowing what’s in them. Eliminating terrorists we confront today only solves part of the problem. We need to transform the very environment from which terrorism and fundamentalism arise. We need to take the long-term view, identify vulnerabilities early, and do more to counteract and prevent radicalization." The currency fell.
- 8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.5 versus 48.1 expected. The currency fell.
- 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.0 versus 51.8 expected. The currency fell.
- 9:30am GBP Retail Sales 0.4% versus -0.6% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD Core CPI -0.3% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
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Saturday, January 24th
- All Day ALL WEF Annual Meetings have not yet occurred.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.15633 open to a 1.12393 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 117.413 open to 117.787 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from 1.51321 open to a 1.50159 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.82218 open to a 0.79241 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.19748 open to a 1.24191 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.7781 open to a 0.7466 close.
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