Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of September 28th through October 2nd
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 28 through October 2, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, September 28th
8:00am GBP MPC Member Cunliffe said that, “By ending too big to fail one of the things we do is dampen the leverage machine inside the banking system by getting bondholders to act as brakes against too much risk". The currency fell.
10:15am USD FOMC Member Tarullo said that, “Conceptual, institutional, and practical impediments to developing a single framework for capital regulation are doubtlessly insuperable for the foreseeable future. But regulators with mandates covering different kinds of intermediaries, including the Federal Reserve, must keep both sides of this perspective in mind. And, hopefully, regulators with a more focused responsibility will be sensitive to the ways in which their regulated entities have departed from their original liability structure.” The currency fell.
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “I think that the economy is doing pretty well, the U.S. economy. We're making progress toward our objectives. The unemployment rate has been trending lower. What's happened and both Stan and I mentioned this in our remarks is international developments have created a little bit more uncertainty. We're having a slowdown in China. It's affecting global commodity markets. It's putting pressure on emerging market economies, and we want to also -- we want to assess that, not for itself, but how that affects the U.S. economic outlook.” The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -1.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Evans said that, “In summary, regardless of when we begin to normalize policy rates, I believe that the rate increases should be gradual —both from the point of view of my baseline outlook for the economy and from a perspective where I have weighed the risks and potential costs of policy missteps. As we manage this next phase for monetary policy, it remains essential that we carefully articulate the rationale for our policies. This would ensure that monetary policy is transparent, accountable and effective.” The currency fell.
10:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams said that, “Looking forward, I expect that we’ll reach our maximum employment mandate in the near future and inflation will gradually move back to our 2 percent goal. In that context, it will make sense to gradually move away from the extraordinary stimulus that got us here. We already took a step in that direction when we ended QE3. And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time.” The currency fell.
Tuesday, September 29th
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.9% versus -0.6% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 4.3B versus 4.1B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD RMPI -6.6% versus -7.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance -67.2B versus -57.3B expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 103.0 versus 96.2 expected. The currency fell.
8:40pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, “Our societies face a series of profound environmental and social challenges. The combination of the weight of scientific evidence and the dynamics of the financial system suggest that, in the fullness of time, climate change will threaten financial resilience and longer-term prosperity. While there is still time to act, the window of opportunity is finite and shrinking. Others will need to learn from Lloyd’s example in combining data, technology and expert judgment to measure and manage risks.” The currency fell.
Wednesday, September 30th
12:50am JPY Retail Sales 0.8% versus 1.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -18.9 versus last -29.1. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Building Approvals -6.9% versus -1.8% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales -0.4% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 100.4 versus 101.2 expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 2k versus -5K expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Current Account -16.8B versus -22.2B expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Final GDP 0.7% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate -0.1% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.9% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.0% versus 10.9% expected. The currency fell.
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that, “There is much more work to do—not just with respect to the U.S. Treasury market, of course, but also on the broader issue of how changes in regulation and market structure influence liquidity conditions across the different financial markets. For example, electronic trading was introduced to the foreign exchange market well before recent regulatory changes. Consequently, a study of the foreign exchange market may shed some additional light on the role of electronic trading on liquidity risk in an environment prior to recent regulatory changes.” The currency rose.
1:15pm USD ADP Nonfarm Payrolls 200K versus 192K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 48.7 versus 53.2 expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.0M versus -0.5M expected. The currency rose.
8:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen said that, “In addition to its responsibilities for monetary policy and financial regulation and supervision, the Federal Reserve takes very seriously its role as a research institution. We believe strongly in the idea that high-quality research can add to knowledge and understanding and help inform economic and financial policymaking to yield better decisions that benefit society. The Fed instituted this conference in partnership with the CSBS because we believe that research can help us better understand the benefits that community banks provide to society and the challenges they face.” The currency rose.
Thursday, October 1st
12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 13 versus 13 expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 25 versus 21 expected. The currency rose.
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
1:00am USD FOMC Member Brainard said that, “We want to better understand the opportunities presented by technological advances that may bring new data to bear and help lenders make available credit to a more diverse set of small business borrowers. In some cases, partnerships between community banks and online platforms may help expand access to credit for consumers and small businesses, and help banks retain and grow their customer base.” The currency fell.
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.8 versus 49.7 expected.
2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 versus last 53.4.
2:45am CNY Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI 47.2 versus 47.2 expected.
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 50.5 versus 51.2 expected.
8:15am CHF Retail Sales -0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51.7 versus 53.0 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.5 versus 51.3 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 277K versus 273K expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.2 versus 50.8 expected. The currency fell.
7:30pm USD FOMC Member Williams said that, “Monetary policy is still powerful. It's powerful in different ways. It's working mostly through capital markets domestically, and it is working internationally in powerful ways through the impact of the exchange rate”. The currency fell.
Friday, October 2nd
12:30am JPY Household Spending 2.9% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
2:30am EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “The progress achieved over the past three years to stabilise and strengthen the euro area is real. Growth is returning. The way forward is well identified. And we will not rest until our monetary union is complete. It is in our interest. It is also in your interest and that of everybody, everywhere.” The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 26.1K versus 17.9K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 59.9 versus 57.5 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings 0.0% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Nonfarm Payrolls 142K versus 201K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 5.1% versus last 5.1%. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Factory Orders -1.9% versus -0.9% expected. The currency fell.
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Fischer has not yet spoken . The currency rose.
Saturday, October 3rd
4:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley speaks.
5:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.11810 open to a 1.1272 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 120.50 open to 119.28 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.5203 open to a 1.5218 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.7020 open to 0.70371 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.3327 open to a 1.3206 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.6368 open to a 0.6439 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.