Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 23rd through November 27th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 23rd through November 27th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone. The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, November 23rd
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.8 versus 50.7 expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 51.3 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 52.2 expected. The currency rose.
8:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.6 versus 54.3 expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.8 versus 52.3 expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 54.6 versus 54.2 expected. The currency rose.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: J. Dijsselbloem, President of the Eurogroup said that,
“First on Greece. Before the Eurogroup, a Board of Directors of the ESM meeting took place to take the formal decision on disbursement. There are two elements here, first of all of course there is this situation with the first set of milestones which now have been implemented. One issue has been moved on to the second set of milestones which is linked to the pension reform, but all the other issues have been dealt with and that opens up the possibility to transfer the €2 billion disbursement. Connected to that is of course the money reserved for the recapitalization of the banks. The formal decision on the transfer of the required funds for the recapitalisation of banks will be taken by the ESM Board of Directors - we don't know the exact figures yet - following the relevant state aid decision which the Commission will have to take on a case-by-case basis. So we can't prejudge that.”
The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.36M versus 5.39M expected. The currency rose.
5:35pm USD Fed Announcement: The Fed announced a closed door meeting at their offices in Washington D.C. with one line of text that said, “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.” The currency rose.
Tuesday, November 24th
8:15am CHF Employment Level noted. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 109.0 versus 108.3 expected. The currency rose.
9:05am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said in an after dinner speech at a business economist forecasting conference, said when asked why the RBA has not lowered interest rates he replied that,
“You are making the case for us to sit still, it is an idea I happen to agree with. The question I ask is: how do you make growth better? It may be you can make it better by lowering rates, it may be that you can make it better most effectively by articulating a case for stability, playing to the positive things that are happening, not smashing the savers over the head further, if the relative effect of that stimulating is not as great as it used to be. I am more than content to lower rates if that actually helps, but is that the best thing to do at any particular time, that's the question that I frame. As for February, you know that's three months away, we've got Christmas, we should just chill out, come back and see what the data says.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP 2.1% versus 2.0% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance -58.4B versus -61.8B expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 90.4 versus 99.3 expected. The currency fell.
11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that,
“In the foreign exchange market, the yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar had been more or less flat throughout the intermeeting period: the yen had appreciated against the dollar, reflecting somewhat heightened expectations that the timing of a hike in the target range for the federal funds rate in the United States would be postponed, but depreciated thereafter, mainly because the dollar had appreciated against the euro and stock prices had risen in Japan and the United States. The yen had appreciated against the euro, reflecting expectations of further monetary easing by the ECB.”
The currency fell.
Wednesday, November 25th
12:30am AUD Construction Work Done -3.6% versus -1.8% expected. The currency fell.
10:20am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that,
“The motivation for the changes to the foreign exchange benchmarks is to reduce the incentive and opportunity for improper behaviour by market participants around benchmark fixes. The implementation of the recommendations in the FSB benchmark report, together with the enhanced scrutiny externally and within organisations on fixing transactions, appears to have moved the market in a favourable direction. As we develop the single code of conduct for the FX market, the intention is that the market will move further to a more favourable and desirable location and allow participants to have much greater confidence that the market is functioning appropriately. We need this to occur, as it very much in all our interests to have a well-functioning foreign exchange market.”
The currency fell.
12:30pm GBP Autumn Forecast Statement, George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer told the House of Commons that,
“The forecast I present shows that after the longest period of rising debt in our modern history, this year our debt will fall and keep falling in every year that follows. The four-year public spending plans that I set out are forecast to deliver that surplus, so we don’t borrow forever and are ready for whatever storms lie ahead.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 260K versus 273K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 3.0% versus 1.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 495K versus 500K expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 91.3 versus 93.2 expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.0M versus 1.3M expected. The currency rose.
9:45pm NZD Trade Balance -963M versus -1000M expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, November 26th
12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure -9.2% versus -2.8% expected. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 5.3% versus 4.9% expected. The currency fell.
All Day USD Bank Holiday
11:30pm JPY Household Spending -2.4% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI 0.0% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
Friday, November 27th
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.3% versus -0.5% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment 2.2% versus 1.5% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD RMPI 0.4% versus last 3.0%. The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.06341 open to a 1.05952 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 122.791 open to 122.751 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.51819 open to a 1.50514 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.72304 open to 0.71918 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.33323 open to a 1.33629 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.65576 open to a 0.6529 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.