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Weekly Forex Market Recap: Week Of February 23-27

Published 03/01/2015, 01:05 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of February 23rd through February 27th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 23rd through February 27th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, February 22nd

  • 11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "The Japanese economy was on a moderate recovery, while weakness could be seen mainly in private consumption. In the government's economic outlook for fiscal 2015, approved by the Cabinet on January 12, 2015, the government projected that the economy would recover, supported by firm private demand, amid further developments in the virtuous cycle of the economy, brought about mainly by pursuing various policies and through government - labor - management initiatives. Based on this, the government projected that the real and nominal GDP growth rates for fiscal 2015 would be around 1.5 percent and around 2.7 percent, respectively." The currency fell.

Monday, February 23rd

  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 106.8 versus 107.4 expected. The currency fell.
  • 11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 1 versus 42 expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.82M versus 5.03M expected. The currency rose.

Tuesday, February 24th

  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 2:00am NZD Inflation Expectations 1.8% versus 2.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:15am CHF Employment Level 4.23M versus 4.22M expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:00am EUR Final CPI -0.6% versus -0.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 2:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “The portrait window is a real innovation in banknote technology. It is the outcome of the Eurosystem’s work to ensure that the euro notes continue to be resilient against counterfeiting. This will reinforce the trust that the 338 million citizens across the euro area place in their banknotes.” The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 96.4 versus 99.6 expected. The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen testified that, "The FOMC's assessment that it can be patient in beginning to normalize policy means that the Committee considers it unlikely that economic conditions will warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate for at least the next couple of FOMC meetings. If economic conditions continue to improve, as the Committee anticipates, the Committee will at some point begin considering an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Before then, the Committee will change its forward guidance. However, it is important to emphasize that a modification of the forward guidance should not be read as indicating that the Committee will necessarily increase the target range in a couple of meetings. Instead the modification should be understood as reflecting the Committee's judgment that conditions have improved to the point where it will soon be the case that a change in the target range could be warranted at any meeting." The currency fell.
  • 7:00pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that, "The experience of the past decade makes a pretty strong case that central banking needs to be reinvented. Keeping inflation on track certainly was not sufficient to keep us out of trouble. Some would even argue that the tranquility fostered by successful inflation targeting helped to spawn the crisis by leading investors and financial intermediaries to take excessive risks. At the very least, it seems to me that we need to take account of a wider range of economic and financial consequences while targeting low inflation." The currency rose.

Wednesday, February 25th

  • 12:30am AUD Construction Work Done -0.2% versus -0.8% expected. The currency rose.
  • 12:30am AUD Wage Price Index 0.6% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.1 versus 49.6 expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 36.4K versus 36.2K expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen testified that, "There has been important progress, however, despite this improvement, too many Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, wage growth is still sluggish and inflation remains well below our longer-run objective." The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 481K versus 477K expected. The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm USD Mortgage Delinquencies 5.68% versus 5.85% expected. The currency fell.
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.4M versus last 7.7M. The currency fell.
  • 4:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, "Under the programme the Eurosystem will continue its purchases of simple and transparent asset-backed securities and of covered bonds. In addition, we will start purchasing on the secondary market investment-grade securities issued by euro area governments, public agencies and European institutions. The purchases will start in March. The combined purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to €60 billion per month. The programme is intended to last until end-September 2016. In any case, it will last until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with its aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term." The currency rose.
  • 9:45pm NZD Trade Balance 56M versus -157M expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, February 26th

  • 12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure -2.2% versus -1.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 7:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate survey 9.7 versus 9.6 expected. The currency fell.
  • 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -20K versus -10K expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 4.1% versus 3.8% expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:00am EUR Private Loans -0.1% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment -1.4% versus 2.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 10:23am EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction 1.36 average yield with a 1.5 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 1.62 percent with a 1.4 bid to cover ratio. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm CAD CPI -0.2% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD CPI -0.7% versus -0.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 313K versus 285K expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 6:00pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart was scheduled to speak, but "Due to anticipated inclement weather, the 2015 Banking Outlook Conference scheduled for February 26 has been canceled." The currency rose.
  • 9:45pm NZD Building Consents versus -2.1% expected. The currency fell.
  • 11:30pm JPY Household Spending -5.1% versus -4.0% expected. The currency fell.
  • 11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI 0.2% versus 2.2% expected. The currency fell.
  • 11:50pm JPY Preliminary Industrial Production 4.0% versus 3.1% expected. The currency fell.
  • 11:50pm JPY Retail Sales -2.0% versus -1.1% expected. The currency fell.

Friday, February 27th

  • 12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 34.4 versus last 30.4 expected. The currency rose.
  • All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.9% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending 0.6% versus -0.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 90.1 versus 89.1 expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -1.1% versus -1.5% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP 2.2% versus 2.1% expected. The currency fell.
  • 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 45.8 versus 58.4 expected. The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 1.7% versus 2.5% expected. The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 95.4 versus 94.2 expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.13792 open to a 1.12079 close.

USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 119.060 open to 119.703 close.

GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from 1.53894 open to a 1.54445 close.

AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.78386 open to a 0.78158 close.

USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.25296 open to a 1.25016 close.

NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 0.7522 open to a 0.7559 close.

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