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Weekly FX Market Recap: Week Of April 22nd - 29th

Published 05/01/2016, 06:06 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of April 22nd through April 29th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 22nd through April 29th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, April 24th
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Monday, April 25th
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 106.6 versus 107.1 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 511K versus 521K expected. The currency fell.

Tuesday, April 26th
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders -0.2% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 0.8% versus 1.9% expected. The currency fell.
1:55pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that, “Financial markets have a love-hate relationship with volatility, and central bankers usually try to see through it all. But one worry I hear a lot these days hits pretty close to home—the idea that monetary policy just isn’t working anymore. That’s one myth I’d like to dispel right off the top. The fact is that policy actions—both monetary and fiscal—taken in the wake of the global financial crisis prevented what would have been a second Great Depression. But many of the negative forces that were acting then are still acting now. That’s why ultra-low interest rates are not causing rapid growth and inflation.” The currency rose.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 94.2 versus 95.8 expected. The currency fell.
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe said that, “There is clearly at present a wide gap between banks’ disappointing returns on the one side and investors’ expectations on the other. This is reflected in current price-to-book ratios. This gap may need to be closed from both directions. But the returns expected by investors in banks may well be sticky and have further to fall to come into line with risk.” The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance 117M versus 405M expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, April 27th
2:30am AUD CPI -0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI 0.2% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 5.0% versus 5.0% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 1.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.0M versus 1.4M expected. The currency fell.
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.” The currency fell.
7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate <0.50% versus <0.50% expected. The currency fell.
10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.25% versus 2.25% expected. The currency fell.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, “Monetary conditions are extremely accommodative internationally, with considerable quantitative easing and negative policy rates in some countries. Financial market volatility has eased in recent weeks, but markets continue to watch closely the policy settings of major central banks. Domestically, the economy is being supported by strong inward migration, construction activity, tourism, and accommodative monetary policy. Dairy export prices have improved slightly, but are below break-even levels for most farmers. The exchange rate remains higher than appropriate given New Zealand’s low commodity export prices. A lower New Zealand dollar is desirable to boost tradables inflation and assist the tradables sector.” The currency fell.

Thursday, April 28th
12:30am JPY Household Spending -5.3% versus -4.0% expected. The currency rose.
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.3% versus -0.3% expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Retail Sales -1.1% versus -1.4% expected. The currency rose.
4:00am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “The Bank decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to continue applying a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to the Policy-Rate Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the Bank. In addition, with a view to supporting financial institutions in disaster areas affected by the Kumamoto Earthquake in their efforts toward meeting demand for funds for restoration and rebuilding, the Bank decided by a unanimous vote to introduce a funds-supplying operation for these financial institutions.” The currency rose.
6:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report noted that, “The outlook through fiscal 2018 envisages that, although sluggishness is expected to remain in exports and production for the time being, domestic demand is likely to follow an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending being maintained in both the household and corporate sectors, and exports are expected to increase moderately on the back of emerging economies moving out of their deceleration phase. Thus, Japan's economy is likely to be on a moderate expanding trend.” The currency rose.
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI -0.2% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.
7:30am JPY BOJ Press Conference, Governor Kuroda noted that, “We have kept monetary policy on hold this time while the effects of quantitative easing with a minus interest rate sink in. Those effects don’t appear in a month or two but I don’t think it’ll take as long as six months or a year.”The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -1.1% versus -0.7% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate 21.0% versus 20.9% expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -16K versus 1K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP 0.5% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 257K versus 258K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.

Friday, April 29th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 6.2 versus last 3.2. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD PPI -0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
4:45am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, “A well-functioning foreign exchange market is very much in the interest of all market participants. This clearly includes central banks, both in their own role as market participants but also as the exchange rate is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. In a globalised world, the foreign exchange market is one of the most vital parts of the financial plumbing.” The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales -1.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 102.7 versus 102.9 expected. The currency fell.
:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP 0.8% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am CHF SNB Chairman Jordan said that, “The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) monetary policy is aimed at easing pressure on the Swiss franc. Since the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate in January 2015, it has been based on two key elements: the negative interest rate of -0.75% charged on sight deposits held at the SNB and the willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary. In this way, the SNB supports the Swiss economy, which grew by 0.9% in 2015 - a positive development in view of the continued weakness of the global economy.” The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 9.3B versus 5.0B expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.8% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Preliminary Flash GDP 0.6% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:00pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe said that, “As I’ve tried to show, the question of how to deal with failing banks and who pays is not new. But the answers have changed over time. We no longer think we should rely on a diet of bread and water, unlimited liability, Shakespearian recitals, ordinary depositors or the taxpayer to bear the burden of failed banks. Our success can never be absolute. We can’t expect to insulate fully all institutions from all external shocks, however large. We have, however, in my view, put in place the legal, financial and practical arrangements to resolve banks of all sizes.” The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD GDP -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD RMPI 3.9% versus last -2.6%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Employment Cost Index 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.1%. versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 50.4 versus 53.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 89.0 versus 90.3 expected. The currency fell.
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report: Is not yet available. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.12146 open to a 1.14467 close.

USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 111.834 open to 107.034 close.

GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.44600 open to a 1.4640 close.

AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.76919 open to 0.76201 close.

USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.26544 open to a 1.25219 close.

NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.68350 open to a 0.69854 close.

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