The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 13th through April 17th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday April 13th
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders -0.4% versus -2.6% expected. The currency fell.
12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that,
“With regard to the outlook, excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, producer prices are expected to decline at a reduced pace for the time being, reflecting movements in international commodity prices, and the year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices. Financial conditions are accommodative. The monetary base has increased significantly as asset purchases by the Bank of Japan have progressed, and the year-on-year rate of growth has been at around 35 percent.”
The currency fell.
3:19am CNY Trade Balance 3.1B versus 43.4B expected.
11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence 23 versus last 24. The currency fell.
Tuesday April 14th
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 3 versus last 0. The currency rose.
14th-15th CNY New Loans 1180B versus 1050B expected.
9:30am GBP CPI 0.0% versus 0.0% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP PPI Input 0.3% versus -0.5% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP RPI 0.9% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.9% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Business Inventories 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
Wednesday April 15th
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.2% versus -1.2% expected. The currency rose.
3:00am CNY GDP 7.0% versus 7.0% expected.
3:00am CNY Industrial Production 5.6% versus 6.9% expected.
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 13.5% versus 13.8% expected.
3:00am CNY NBS Press Conference: NBS spokesperson Sheng Laiyun said that regardless of the slowdown in China,
“Consumption stayed largely stable in Q1, and contributed the most to GDP growth among the three major economic drivers [consumption, investment and foreign trade].”
The currency rose.
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.05% versus 0.05% expected.
“At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.”
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales -1.7% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Draghi said that,
“As regards non-standard monetary policy measures, on 9 March we started purchasing euro-denominated public sector securities as part of our expanded asset purchase programme, which also comprises purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds. Purchases are intended to run until the end of September 2016 and, in any case, until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. When carrying out its assessment, the Governing Council will follow its monetary policy strategy and concentrate on trends in inflation, looking through unexpected outcomes in measured inflation in either direction if judged to be transient and to have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -1.2 versus 7.2 expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% versus 78.7% expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Industrial Production -0.6% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm NZD GDT Price Index -3.6% versus last -10.8%. The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report noted that,
“This widespread easing, coupled with the positive implications of lower energy prices for world growth, leads us to the conclusion that the global economy will pick up through the year. Increased economic divergence is prompting divergent monetary policies as well, and is delivering more exchange-rate volatility and, on net, more strength in the U.S. dollar. Turning to Canada, as we stated in the January MPR, although lower oil prices would have both upside and downside effects on Canada, the net impact would be negative. The negative effects would be immediate and seemed quite certain, whereas the positive effects would be more gradual and less certain.”
The currency fell.
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that,
“As the economy reaches and remains at full capacity around the end of 2016, both total and core inflation are projected to be close to 2 per cent on a sustained basis. Risks to the outlook for inflation are now roughly balanced and risks to financial stability appear to be evolving as expected. The Bank judges that the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate and therefore is maintaining the target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent.”
The currency fell.
3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 0.75% versus 0.75% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 56 versus 55 expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M (NYSE:MMM) versus last 3.5M. The currency fell.
4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference: BOC Governor Poloz said that,
“Outside of the energy sector, other areas of the economy appear to be doing well. In particular, the segments of non-energy exports that we have been expecting to lead the recovery have been doing so, and we expect this trend to be buttressed by stronger U.S. growth and the lower Canadian dollar.”
The currency fell.
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 54.5 versus 56.1 expected. The currency rose.
Thursday April 16th
12:30am USD FOMC Member Lacker said that,
“Rising inequality is not the only clue that we are not adequately preparing the next generation of workers. Nationwide, about 20 percent of high school students fail to graduate within four years, and there are significant disparities in graduation rates between white students and black or Hispanic students and between students from high-income and low-income families. In some large urban school districts, as many as 40 percent of students do not graduate in four years.”
The currency fell.
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.4% versus last 3.2%. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Employment Change 37.7K versus 14.9K expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 6.1% versus 6.3% expected. The currency rose.
8:15am CHF PPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbourne said that,
"The situation in Greece is the one that at the moment is the most worrying for the global economy, and the discussions about Greece have pervaded every meeting. The mood is notably more gloomy than at the last international gathering. And it's clear now to me that a misstep or a miscalculation on either side could easily return European economies to the kind of perilous situation we saw three to four years ago. The crunch appears now to be coming in May, and it would be a mistake to think that the UK would be immune to a return to this instability in European financial systems and the European economy. And of course it would be therefore the very worst moment for there to be any confusion about the direction of British economic policy or for a change of direction from the plan that we have pursued."
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.04M versus 1.08M expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 294K versus 284K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.93M versus 1.05M expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 7.5 versus 6.5 expected. The currency fell.
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that,
“The Federal Open Market Committee has laid down two criteria to be met before we begin to raise interest rates. They are further progress in labor markets and reasonable confidence that inflation will rise to the longer-run target of 2 percent. The FOMC has also emphasized that the decision will be data-dependent. I consider this an essential discipline around our decision making on this matter. To me, data dependency means there is no preconceived plan. Data dependency means the decision will be based on the best evidence we have of the reality and trajectory of the economy.”
The currency fell.
8:00pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that,
“There is definitely a rebound underway already, we'll see at what speed it proceeds”.
The currency fell.
Friday April 17th
8:15am CHF Retail Sales -2.7% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 1.7% versus 1.8% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -20.7K versus -29.1K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5.6% versus 5.6% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Final CPI -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings: Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko on Ukraine’s IMF Program said that,
"I have to emphasize that these (IMF) targets are written in stone. This might be painful for some, but this is eventually in everyone's interests."
She continued saying that,
"Ukraine is not facing only a liquidity problem, but also a solvency problem. Therefore a combination of coupon reduction, maturity extension and nominal reduction is required to meet all three of those (IMF) targets."
1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 0.7% versus -1.8% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD CPI 0.5% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.00B versus 5.73B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Retail Sales 0.5% versus -1.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.8 versus 93.0 expected. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.05946 open to a 1.07783 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 120.251 open to 118.996 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.46283 open to a 1.49335 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.76687 open to a 0.77689 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.25784 open to a 1.22361 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.7524 open to a 0.7678 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.