Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of February 1st through February 5th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 1st through February 5th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, February 1st
12:54am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.5 versus last 54.4.
12:56am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.4 versus 49.6 expected.
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.4 versus 48.1 expected.
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 55.4 versus 52.5 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.9 versus 51.8 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 4.4B versus 4.9B expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.2 versus 48.6 expected. The currency fell.
4:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “Since our meeting in early December, conditions have once more changed. A moderate recovery of the euro area economy is under way, driven mainly by domestic demand. But downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about emerging market economies’ growth prospects, volatility in financial and commodity markets, and geopolitical risks.” The currency rose.
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that, “Our decision in December was based on the substantial improvement in the labor market and the Committee's confidence that inflation would return to our 2 percent goal over the medium term. Employment growth last year averaged a solid 220,000 per month, and the unemployment rate declined from 5.6 percent to 5.0 percent over the course of 2015. Inflation ran well below our target last year, held down by the transitory effects of declines in crude oil prices and also in the prices of non-oil imports.” The currency fell.
Tuesday, February 2nd
3:30am AUD Cash Rate 2.00% versus 2.00% expected. The currency fell.
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement: Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, “Financial markets have once again exhibited heightened volatility recently, as participants grapple with uncertainty about the global economic outlook and diverging policy settings among the major jurisdictions. Appetite for risk has diminished somewhat and funding conditions for emerging market sovereigns and lesser-rated corporates have tightened. But funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.” The currency fell.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 57.2K versus 71.2K expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -20K versus -7K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 55.0 versus 57.6 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% versus 10.5% expected. The currency rose.
10:30am CHF SNB Chairman Jordan said that, “We’re convinced the franc remains overvalued and that’s why our monetary policy is designed to reduce the pressure on the Swiss franc with these two pillars -- negative interest rates and the willingness to intervene in currency markets if necessary”. The currency fell.
1:53pm NZD GDT Price Index -7.4% versus last -1.4%. The currency fell.
6:00pm USD FOMC Member George said that, “If we wait for the data to provide complete confirmation before making a policy decision, we may well have waited too long. Likewise, policy may be faced with altering its trajectory if the economy's progress points to a different outlook. But in the absence of any substantial shift in the outlook, my view is that the committee should continue the gradual adjustment of moving rates higher to keep them aligned with economic activity and inflation.” The currency fell.
9:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.9% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
9:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 5.3% versus 6.1% expected. The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, . The currency fell.
Wednesday, February 3rd
12:00am NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, “The economy is in its 7th year of expansion. Annual GDP growth slowed to around 2½ percent in the first half of 2015, primarily due to the sharp decline in dairy prices, but the economy is projected to grow at around 3 percent over the next couple of years. At this stage there is nothing to suggest that the expansion will stop. However, more so than in recent years, there are greater uncertainties around the outlook, and, as with the global economy, the balance of risks lies on the downside.” The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Building Approvals 9.2% versus 4.8% expected. The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Trade Balance -3.54B versus -2.45B expected. The currency rose.
1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 52.4 versus 50.5 expected.
4:30am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, “The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food), which had been minus 0.5 percent just before the introduction of QQE, increased to as high as 1.5 percent in April 2014, excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike (Chart 4). However, as a result of a substantial fall in crude oil prices since summer 2014, it has declined gradually and currently is around 0 percent. Nonetheless, the Bank is of the view that the underlying trend in inflation has been improving steadily.” The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Services PMI 55.6 versus 55.4 expected. The currency rose.
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls 205K versus 193K expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.5 versus 55.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.8M versus 3.7M expected. The currency fell.
10:30pm NZD RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott said that, “The experience since the beginning of 2014 highlights the conditional nature of our interest rate forecasts. Unforeseen economic events led to weaker-than-expected inflationary pressure in the economy. As a result, we significantly revised down the outlook for short-term interest rates. The Bank will continue to adjust monetary policy as conditions evolve to ensure that price stability is achieved over the medium term.” The currency rose.
Thursday, February 4th
12:30am AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 4 versus last 1. The currency rose.
7:15am USD FOMC Member Rosengren said that, “Significant progress has been made in eliminating TBTF and the possibility that
taxpayers in the United States would need to bail out the domestic GSIBs to preserve the financial system’s functioning. But it is important to remember that significant work still remains. Some of the proposals need to be finalized, some of the regulations are only in the process of being phased in, and more work needs to be done on resolution plans to insure that GSIBs can be resolved in an orderly fashion.” The currency fell.
8:00am EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “There are forces in the global economy today that are conspiring to hold inflation down. What matters is that central banks act within their mandates to fulfill their mandates. In the euro area, that might create different challenges than it does in other jurisdictions, but those challenges can be mitigated. They do not justify inaction.” The currency rose.
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI 1.7% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts noted that, “The European economy is now entering its fourth year of recovery and growth continues at a moderate rate, driven mainly by consumption. At the same time, much of the world economy is grappling with major challenges and risks to European growth are therefore increasing.” The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Report noted that, “Past falls in oil and other commodity prices have dragged directly on headline inflation rates across many countries and are likely to have depressed prices of internationally traded goods by reducing production and transport costs. Annual UK-weighted world export price inflation, excluding fuel, was -0.9% in Q3, which will weigh on UK inflation.” The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 versus 1-0-8 expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary noted that, “In December, 12-month CPI inflation stood at 0.2%, almost 2 percentage points below the inflation target. Oil prices were more than a third lower, in sterling terms, than a year earlier. Together with muted growth in world prices, the appreciation of sterling since early 2013 has pulled down on import prices more broadly. Overall, these factors can explain the vast majority of the deviation of inflation from the target in December, and to an even greater extent than at the time of the November Inflation Report. The remainder of the undershoot reflects subdued domestic cost growth, particularly unit labour costs.” The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Letter noted that, “By far the most important reason for below target inflation remains the sharp falls in energy prices since the middle of 2014. Oil prices have fallen sharply further over the past three months and in December were more than a third lower, in sterling terms, than a year earlier. This has dragged energy price inflation down further. The contribution of fuels and domestic gas and electricity prices to CPI inflation was -0.6 percentage points in December, nearly a percentage point below its pre-crisis average. Food price inflation also remained weak, at -2.9%, reflecting the continued effects of lower input costs and intense competition amongst retailers.” The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency fell.
12:30pm GBP BOE Governor Carney speaking on the Brexit referendum said that, “There is not yet a big risk premium built into business and household confidence around the referendum. We do see in the exchange rate market, and it’s observed in the report, that there has been some buying of protection if you will, around the referendum.” The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 285K versus 279K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity -3.0% versus -1.5% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Preliminary Unit Labor Costs 4.5% versus 3.9% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Factory Orders -2.9% versus -2.5% expected. The currency fell.
10:00pm USD FOMC Member Mester said that, “The Committee has indicated that, in setting policy, it assesses both realized and expected progress toward the FOMC’s statutory objectives of maximum employment and price stability. The decision to maintain the target range in January, just as the decision to raise it in December, represents the outcome of such an assessment. This assessment encompasses a wide range of economic information – the official economic statistical releases and financial market indicators, as well as the information I and other FOMC participants garner by speaking with contacts in our regions.” The currency fell.
Friday, February 5th
12:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “The diverging monetary policy trends among the major central banks, concerns about the challenges facing the Chinese authorities and large declines in oil prices have contributed to an increase in volatility in global financial markets of late. Sovereign bond yields have declined noticeably since late last year, as have equity prices. Also, spreads on corporate bonds in the United States, euro area and Australia increased owing to sharp rises in spreads for energy and resource-related companies.” The currency fell.
12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.0% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders -0.7% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 575B versus last 560B. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 5.2K versus last 22.8K. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -2.2B versus last -2.0B. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.2% versus last 7.1%. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% versus last 0.0%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 189K versus last 292K. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 5.0% versus last 5.0%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -42.9B versus last -42.4B. The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 50.3 versus last 49.9. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.08295 open to a 1.1133 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 121.308 open to 117.021 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.42476 open to a 1.4473 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: mildly higher from a 0.70616 open to 0.7082 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.39672 open to a 1.38702 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.64836 open to a 0.66211 close.
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