Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of August 24th through August 28th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of August 24th through August 28th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, August 24th
8:55pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart said that,
“I expect the normalization of monetary policy — that is, interest rates — to begin sometime this year, currently, developments such as the appreciation of the dollar, the devaluation of the Chinese currency, and the further decline of oil prices are complicating factors in predicting the pace of growth.” As to when rates will rise, he said, “I’m going to stick with later this year. We have three more meetings; from my perspective September remains a live possibility. I expect normalization to proceed gradually, the implication being an environment of rather low rates for quite some time.”
The currency fell.
Tuesday, August 25th
4:00am NZD Inflation Expectations 1.9% versus last 1.9%. The currency rose.
8:15am CHF Employment Level 4.24M versus 4.24M expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.3 versus 107.6 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 101.5 versus 92.8 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 507K versus 512K expected. The currency rose.
5:25pm CAD Governor Council Member Schembri said that,
“The decline in yields has been attributed to higher global savings and stronger monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, which have credibly reduced inflation and risk premiums by increasing macroeconomic stability in the roughly 15-year period (known as the Great Moderation) that preceded the global financial crisis. Since the crisis, persistently weak global demand — especially real investment — coupled with sustained low central bank policy rates and large asset purchases has helped to lower long-term interest rates and, in turn, reduce financing costs for financial intermediaries and mortgage rates for households.”
The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance -649M versus -665M expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, August 26th
1:05am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that,
“Growth is important. And for a while now, there has not been quite enough growth. There has been growth, and more than in many countries. But, recent labour market outcomes notwithstanding, not as much as we ought to be capable of. Growth rates have mostly started with a ‘2’ for a while now – despite the lowest interest rates in our lifetimes, banks able and willing to lend and measures of consumer and business confidence generally about average (notwithstanding what we keep reading in the media). This may be simply a feature of the post-financial crisis world – the need for balance sheet repair.”
The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Construction Work Done 1.6% versus -1.5% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.6% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 2.0% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
“Many parts of the region have bounced back quite well from the Great Recession, and now have more jobs than before the downturn. New York City really stands out in this regard. While the Great Recession was the deepest and longest recession in modern history for the nation as a whole, New York City bucked that trend to a surprising degree, and did it with little help from Wall Street. As we will discuss later in the briefing, one of New York City's strongest sectors has been technology. In this recovery, employment in the city's tech sector has added nearly 50,000 jobs, many of which pay well. The growth of the so-called Silicon Alley has not only helped the city bounce back from the recession, but, I believe, is a key for the city moving forward.”
The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.5M versus 1.0M expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, August 27th
2:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure -4.0% versus -2.5% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR EZ M3 Money Supply 5.3% versus 4.9% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP 3.7% versus 3.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 271K versus 275K expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 0.5% versus 1.3% expected. The currency rose.
Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium: Philadelphia Fed President and FOMC member Charles Plosser said that,
“as the economy has improved, we need to anticipate that we will have to raise rates probably sooner than a lot of people have thought and that our language has indicated.”
The currency rose.
Friday, August 28th
12:30am JPY Household Spending -0.2% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
12:50am JPY Retail Sales 1.6% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
6:45am CHF GDP 0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI -0.1% versus last 0.2%. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.4% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP 0.7% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment 2.9% versus 1.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD RMPI -4.0% versus last 0.0%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance last -62.3B. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus last 0.1%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.4% versus last 0.2%. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.2 versus last 93.2. The currency rose.
Day 2 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that,
"I’m willing to respect the volatility in markets and see how it shakes out here, but just sitting here today, I’m not seeing how this is going to change the forecast and therefore I think the contours of monetary policy are about the same today as they were a couple of weeks ago. But I’m open to looking at data, and we don’t have to make a decision until we get to the meeting, so why not wait until the meeting and see if things settle down here quickly?"
The currency rose.
Saturday, August 29th
3:25am GBP BOE Governor Carney has not yet spoken.
5:25pm USD FOMC Member Fischer has not yet spoken.
Day 3 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium has not yet taken place.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.13745 open to a 1.12231 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 121.955 open to 121.128 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.56869 open to a 1.53513 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.73037 open to 0.71498 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.31790 open to a 1.32359 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.6667 open to a 0.6456 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.