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Weekly FX Market Forecast: May 30th – June 3rd 2016

Published 05/31/2016, 03:31 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of May 30th – June 3rd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week
Monday, May 30th
12:50am JPY Retail Sales (-1.2% expected, > good for currency)
1:20am USD FOMC Member Bullard speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
2:30am AUD Company Operating Profits (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (102.9 expected, > good for currency)
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI (-1.0% expected, > good for currency)
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
1:30pm CAD Current Account (-17.4B expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD RMPI (2.2% expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, May 31st
12:30am JPY Household Spending (-1.0% expected, > good for currency)
2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence (last 6.2, > good for currency)
2:30am AUD Building Approvals (-2.8% expected, > good for currency)
2:30am AUD Current Account (-19.3B expected, > good for currency)
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales (1.1% expected, > good for currency)
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change (-4K expected, < good for currency)
9:00am EUR EZ M3 Money Supply (5.0% expected, < good for currency)
10:00am EUR EZ CPI Flash Estimate (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
10:00am EUR EZ Core CPI Flash Estimate (0.8% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD GDP (0.0% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Personal Spending (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI (50.8 expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (96.1 expected, > good for currency)

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Wednesday, June 1st
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (50.0 expected)
2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (last 53.5)
2:30am AUD GDP (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (49.3 expected)
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (52.6 expected, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (49.6 expected, > good for currency)
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals (5.3B expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (50.6 expected, > good for currency)
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index (last 2.6% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, June 2nd
2:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
2:30am AUD Trade Balance (-2.11B expected, > good for currency)
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change (-110.0K expected, < good for currency)
9:30am GBP Construction PMI (52.1 expected, > good for currency)
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (0.00% expected, > good for currency)
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Payrolls (179K expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (271K expected, < good for currency)
1:35pm USD FOMC Member Powell speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -4.2M, > good for currency)

Friday, June 3rd
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI (52.0 expected)
9:30am GBP Services PMI (52.3 expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance (-2.6B expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity (last 0.1%, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (160K expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (4.9% expected, < good for currency)
1:30pm USD Trade Balance (-41.9B expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (55.4 expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD Factory Orders (0.9% expected, > good for currency)

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Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Mildly lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.1104, 1.1113/15, 1.1128/34, 1.1142/44, 1.1150, 1.1159, 1.1170/79, 1.1192, 1.1211/19, 1.1233, 1.1248, 1.1256/82, 1.1294/1.1303, 1.1317/18, 1.1326/37, 1.1341/48, 1.1358, 1.1375/97, 1.1422/64, 1.1483, 1.1494/98, 1.1533, 1.1615, 1.1642, 1.1713, 1.1753, 1.1866/77, 1.1900/01, 1.1938, 1.1975, 1.2041, 1.2133, 1.2143, 1.2162/64, 1.2219, 1.2241/55, 1.2270/72, 1.2323/33, 1.2357/62, 1.2381/94, 1.2407/39, 1.2455, 1.2494/96, 1.2500/01, 1.2514/19, 1.2531, 1.2545, 1.2569/70, 1.2588/89, 1.2605, 1.2613, 1.2623/25, 1.2661/63, 1.2676, 1.2692/98, 1.2715, 1.2744/54, 1.2791/1.2805, 1.2815/21, 1.2834/79, 1.2900/04, 1.2919/21 and 1.2978/98.

Above: 1.3000/03, 1.3047, 1.3059/66, 1.3077, 1.3093/1.3109, 1.3126/30, 1.3152/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.1094/97, 1.1066/72, 1.1040/57, 1.1016/17, 1.1005/10, 1.0992/98, 1.0983/86, 1.0967/68, 1.0960, 1.0911/17, 1.0896, 1.0882/86, 1.0873, 1.0866, 1.0847/53, 1.0818/33, 1.0804/09, 1.0762/90, 1.0736, 1.0707, 1.0688, 1.0616, 1.0591/95, 1.0565/68, 1.0499, 1.0461, 1.0206 and 1.0104.

Below: 0.9607/21, 0.9599, 0.9451, 0.9338, 0.8840, 0.8822/28, 0.8594 and 0.8562.

USD/JPY: Mildly higher

Resistance:
Initial: 110.97/111.03, 111.60/66, 111.78/88, 112.01, 112.15, 112.30, 112.98, 113.38, 113.79, 113.98, 114.12, 114.55/65, 114.87, 115.56/58, 115.85, 115.92, 116.10/14, 116.28, 116.50, 116.82/117.02, 117.23, 117.43, 117.52, 117.65/76, 117.93/99, 118.04/05, 118.23/45, 118.62/67, 118.85/97, 119.01/06, 119.21/28, 119.37/46, 119.61/65, 119.80, 119.95, 120.00/10, 120.17/27, 120.34/47, 120.56, 120.62/65, 120.73/82, 121.02, 121.19/23, 121.27/38, 121.48/49, 121.62/68, 121.80/84, 121.96, 122.01, 122.22/30, 122.44, 122.60/68, 122.87, 123.12, 123.25, 123.42/49, 123.71/78, 123.95, 124.05, 124.11/14, 124.22, 124.35/38, 124.43/46, 125.06, 125.27, and 125.40.

Above: 125.67/75, 126.17, 126.41, 126.90 and 135.19.

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Support:
Initial: 110.66, 110.58, 110.39/47, 110.08, 109.89/90, 109.72, 109.53/54, 109.41/45, 109.10, 108.98, 108.71, 108.42/46, 108.22/24, 108.00, 107.83, 107.62/66, 107.38/39, 107.18, 107.05, 106.80, 106.15/24, 105.70, 105.54, 105.41/43, 105.30/33, 105.18, 104.83/91, 104.63/68, 104.36, 104.07/26, 103.91, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.37/43, 103.30, 102.92/103.08, 102.57/82, 102.49/52, 102.33/40, 102.26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22 and 100.00.

Below: 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.4615, 1.4634/37, 1.4662/69, 1.4692/98, 1.4733/38, 1.4768, 1.4785, 1.4812, 1.4830, 1.4856, 1.4868, 1.4872, 1.4884, 1.4913, 1.4927, 1.4943/50, 1.4966/67, 1.4985/88, 1.5007, 1.5013/14, 1.5026/33, 1.5053/56, 1.5072/77, 1.5081, 1.5092, 1.5101/06, 1.5123, 1.5130/36, 1.5152/64, 1.5173/80, 1.5185/87, 1.5195/99, 1.5208/23, 1.5236/41, 1.5260/68, 1.5276, 1.5293, 1.5304/05, 1.5313/51, 1.5382/84, 1.5392, 1.5403/40, 1.5457/58, 1.5467, 1.5476/85, 1.5496/99, 1.5505/08, 1.5514/20, 1.5529/33, 1.5538/51, 1.5561/68, 1.5584/96, 1.5601/19, 1.5624/27, 1.5646, 1.5656/58, 1.5669/74, 1.5683/92, 1.5714/17, 1.5725, 1.5750, 1.5763, 1.5775/89, 1.5803/07, 1.5817, 1.5825, 1.5844, 1.5853, 1.5874/77, 1.5886/93, 1.5900/27, 1.5948/61, 1.5975/94, 1.6001/08, 1.6051/66, 1.6071/83, 1.6096/98, 1.6109/21, 1.6130/36, 1.6155, 1.6161, 1.6177/83, 1.6195/98, 1.6204/16, 1.6222/26, 1.6237/46, 1.6251/62, 1.6280/90, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6336, 1.6348, 1.6357, 1.6376, 1.6380/83, 1.6394, 1.6400, 1.6415/18, 1.6441/44, 1.6458/65, 1.6484, and 1.6496.

Above: 1.6516, 1.6524, 1.6534, 1.6548, 1.6576/86, 1.6592, 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78, 1.7190 and 1.7440.

Support:
Initial: 1.4603, 1.4546, 1.4529/34, 1.4513, 1.4451/72, 1.4436/44, 1.4406/18, 1.4396, 1.4374, 1.4361, 1.4345/51, 1.4331, 1.4321, 1.4298, 1.4247/51, 1.4232/34, 1.4170/72, 1.4148, 1.4130, 1.4108, 1.4089, 1.4079, 1.4052/56, 1.4041, 1.4000/04 and 1.3877.
Below: 1.3853, 1.3835/40, 1.3653 and 1.3501.

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AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7175, 0.7181/85, 0.7197, 0.7207, 0.7214/15, 0.7221/23, 0.7234, 0.7241/58, 0.7265/71, 0.7279/82, 0.7295/0.7302, 0.7326, 0.7337/43, 0.7362/79, 0.7393, 0.7413, 0.7442/46, 0.7469/76, 0.7487/92, 0.7504/09, 0.7547, 0.7559, 0.7590/98, 0.7614/18, 0.7625, 0.7630/36, 0.7642/48, 0.7653, 0.7667/81, 0.7693, 0.7700/10, 0.7718/22, 0.7725, 0.7735/40, 0.7750/64, 0.7772/84, 0.7791/92, 0.7817, 0.7825, 0.7834/88, 0.7912, 0.7919, 0.7950, 0.7988, 0.8008, 0.8020, 0.8024/34, 0.8051, 0.8066/87, 0.8106, 0.8121, 0.8138, 0.8156, 0.8172, 0.8203/14, 0.8223, 0.8233, 0.8294, 0.8307, 0.8375, 0.8416, 0.8473/84, 0.8512, 0.8541, 0.8578, 0.8590, 0.8641, 0.8651/62, 0.8693, 0.8702, 0.8729, 0.8747/54, 0.8760/73, 0.8784, 0.8812, 0.8819/25, 0.8842/52, 0.8857/61, 0.8869, 0.8887/97, 0.8906/12, 0.8918/20, 0.8923/36, 0.8951/57, 0.8967/69, 0.8981/87, 0.8994/0.9010, 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9042/48, 0.9054/57, 0.9061/66, 0.9072/79, 0.9102, 0.9110/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9200/08, 0.9214/26, 0.9232/74, 0.9286/94, 0.9304, 0.9311, 0.9328/34, 0.9343/53, 0.9359, 0.9386/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.

Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.

Support:
Initial: 0.7152/61, 0.7140/44, 0.7108, 0.7098, 0.7083, 0.7062/69, 0.7047, 0.7030/34, 0.7021/24, 0.7001/02, 0.6945, 0.6936/37, 0.6918, 0.6907, 0.6852, 0.6826, 0.6773, 0.6753, 0.6697, 0.6670 and 0.6555.
Below: 0.6339/41, 0.6317, 0.5804, 0.5795, 0.5730, 0.5645, 0.5490, 0.5399, 0.5228, 0.4815 and 0.4773.

USD/CAD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.3079, 1.3089, 1.3099, 1.3101, 1.3115/16, 1.3136, 1.3145, 1.3161/66, 1.3174, 1.3187/90, 1.3197, 1.3212/17, 1.3233, 1.3241/45, 1.3260/64, 1.3270/83, 1.3295, 1.3305/16, 1.3323/25, 1.3352, 1.3367/74, 1.3385/95, 1.3404, 1.3415, 1.3434, 1.3456, 1.3504, 1.3586, 1.3606, 1.3638, 1.3652/61, 1.3672, 1.3687, 1.3756, 1.3780, 1.3813/14, 1.3845, 1.3858, 1.3872, 1.3910, 1.3939/46, 1.3992/1.4015, 1.4035, 1.4101, 1.4113, 1.4195, 1.4277, 1.4324, 1.4430, 1.4605/24, 1.4689/93 and 1.4894.
Above: 1.5024, 1.5065, 1.5150, 1.5182, 1.5322, 1.5632, 1.5830, 1.5855, 1.6054 and 1.6196.

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Support:
Initial: 1.3062/69, 1.3054, 1.3037/39, 1.3021, 1.3007/14, 1.2994, 1.2985/89, 1.2970, 1.2950/56, 1.2935, 1.2922, 1.2900/09, 1.2884, 1.2856, 1.2830/36, 1.2822, 1.2797, 1.2770/78, 1.2757, 1.2742, 1.2716, 1.2693/96, 1.2662, 1.2631, 1.2625, 1.2615, 1.2613, 1.2609, 1.2585/92, 1.2563, 1.2537, 1.2497, 1.2471, 1.2456/61, 1.2448/58, 1.2436, 1.2421, 1.2406, 1.2386, 1.2378, 1.2361/66, 1.2351, 1.2333, 1.2287, 1.2244, 1.2126, 1.2091, 1.2045, 1.2030, 1.2016, 1.1976, 1.1933, 1.1886, 1.1872/75, 1.1841, 1.1802, 1.1794/96, 1.1723/29, 1.1670/72, 1.1666, 1.1547/90, 1.1475, 1.1457/65, 1.1443/47, 1.1391/92, 1.1384, 1.1331/39, 1.1310/12, 1.1289/95, 1.1263/77, 1.1254, 1.1221/29, 1.1190/94, 1.1168/73, 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1141, 1.1116/32, 1.1102/09, 1.1097/99, 1.1081/89, 1.1069/70, 1.1030/53, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.0962/66, 1.0954/59, 1.0941/45, 1.0934, 1.0925/28, 1.0915, 1.0903/09, 1.0894,1.0873/86, 0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22 and 1.0506.

Below: 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018, 1.0012, 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Mildly higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.6679/85, 0.6693/96, 0.6706/13, 0.6720/24, 0.6734/38, 0.6750/60, 0.6771/73, 0.6784, 0.6790, 0.6804/21, 0.6828/45, 0.6857/63, 0.6872, 0.6881, 0.6895, 0.6923, 0.6950, 0.6964/66, 0.6996, 0.7051/52, 0.7076, 0.7102, 0.7112, 0.7174, 0.7199, 0.7213, 0.7230, 0.7273, 0.7305, 0.7312, 0.7331/36, 0.7368, 0.7394, 0.7404, 0.7419/20, 0.7433, 0.7440/47, 0.7455/59, 0.7467, 0.7484/0.7500, 0.7528/55, 0.7585/95, 0.7609, 0.7605/59, 0.7679/97, 0.7705/35, 0.7751/58, 0.7760/64, 0.7763, 0.7779/83, 0.7791/95, 0.7804/08, 0.7819/29, 0.7838/48, 0.7856/57, 0.7863/78, 0.7888, 0.7903/06, 0.7925/37, 0.7967, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.8030, 0.8040, 0.8049/60, 0.8075/82, 0.8100/09, 0.8114/37, 0.8147/53, 0.8160/76, 0.8186, 0.8195/97, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/41, 0.8250/55, 0.8263, 0.8268/71, 0.8280, 0.8285/87, 0.8291/95, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/66, 0.8376, 0.8389, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/61, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89 and 0.8499.

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Above: 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821, 0.8834 and 0.8840.

Support:
Initial: 0.6666/69, 0.6639/41, 0.6616/20, 0.6584/0.6609, 0.6585, 0.6571/73, 0.6556/63, 0.6538/43, 0.6529, 0.6519, 0.6504/07, 0.6491/97, 0.6466, 0.6447/55, 0.6435, 0.6423/27, 0.6415, 0.6400/07, 0.6396, 0.6379/88, 0.6345, 0.6287, 0.6269, 0.6254, 0.6248, 0.6242 and 0.6234.

Below: 0.6022, 0.5991, 0.5926, 0.5914, 0.5682, 0.5673, 0.5608, 0.5637/41, 0.5480 and 0.5324.

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