Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of March 17th through March 21st
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of March 17th through March 21st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, March 17th
- 1:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales 0.1% versus -3.5% expected. The currency rose.
- 10:30am GBP MPC Member Cunliffesaid that, "Regulators and supervisors who cannot trust the implementation of standards in other jurisdictions will defend stability in their own jurisdictions by raising barriers.Such action minimises the risk of international crises, but the cost is the rolling back of financial globalisation with less effective and efficient intermediation on global savings." The currency was unchanged.
- 11:00am EUR CPI 0.7% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
- 11:00am EUR Core CPI 1.0% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 1.09B versus 3.24B expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.6 versus 6.6 expected. The currency rose.
- 2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 1.09B versus 23.4B expected. The currency fell.
- 2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8% versus 78.7% expected. The currency fell.
- 2:15pmUSD Industrial Production 0.6% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
- 3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 47 versus 50 expected. The currency fell.
- 4:00pm EUR German Buba President Weidmannsaid that, "In the early stages of European economic and monetary union, interest rates in the member states converged at a low level following the elimination of exchange rate risk. From the perspective of deeper economic and financial market integration, this was desirable in principle. However, the favourable financing conditions in the euro-area countries with previously higher interest rates stimulated their domestic demand." The currency rose.
Tuesday, March 18th
- 1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "While the labour market was expected to remain subdued for a while and wage growth had declined, the Board observed that this was consistent with conditions in the labour market usually lagging changes in economic activity. The decline in the exchange rate seen to date would assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, though members noted that the exchange rate remained high by historical standards." The currency rose.
- 11:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 46.6 versus 52.8 expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales 1.5% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.02M versus 0.97M expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
- 4:55pm CAD BOC GovernorPolozsaid that, "The global economy may not be just suffering through a hangover from the financial crisis,"but"There are other, longer-term forces at work as well." The currency fell.
- 6:45pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, "The global environment for the foreseeable future has opportunities but actually is going to be quite risky as well. We will continue to have risks coming from abroad that we can prepare for and to some extent we can moderate the impact of those risks but we won't be able to escape them". The currency fell.
Wednesday, March 19th
- 6:00am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, "In a world in which deflationary expectations are entrenched, the holding of cash or deposits becomes a relatively better investment strategy, and firms' incentives to launch new initiatives through investing in business facilities and in research and development become reduced. Thus, Japan's economy was deprived of vitality and this generated a vicious cycle in which the low vitality made it more difficult to overcome deflation. Due to its long persistence, deflation has become a challenge that is more and more difficult to overcome." The currency rose.
- 10:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -34.6K versus -23.3K expected. The currency fell.
- 10:30am GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at 375B versus 375B expected, votes 0-0-9 as expected. The currency fell.
- 10:30am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50%versus 0.50% expected, votes 0-0-9, as expected. The currency fell.
- 10:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.2% versus 7.2% expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm GBP Annual Budget Release: Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne stated, "The message from this Budget is: you have earned it, you have saved it, and this government is on your side, whether you're on a low or middle income, whether you're saving for your home, for your family or for your retirement." The currency fell.
- 6:45pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan said that, “Though we’ve made some progress, we’re far away from a full recovery”. The currency fell.
- 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections noted that, "Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy." The currency rose.
- 7:00pm USD Fed Funds Rate Decision: unchanged at <0.25% versus <0.25% expected. The currency rose.
- 7:00pmUSD TheFOMC Rate Statement noted that, "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate." The currency rose.
- 7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference noted that, "Despite some softer recent data, the FOMC’s outlook for continued progress toward our goals of maximum employment and inflation returning to 2 percent remains broadly unchanged. Unusually harsh weather in January and February has made assessing the underlying strength of the economy especially challenging. Broadly speaking, however, the spending and production data, while somewhat weaker than we had expected in January, are roughly in line with our expectations as of December, the last time Committee participants submitted economic projections." The currency rose.
- 10:45pm NZD GDP 0.9% versus 1.0% expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, March 20th
- 8:15am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately in association with a virtuous cycle among production, income, and spending. The real GDP growth rate has marked fiveconsecutive quarters of positive growth, and domestic demand has been registering highgrowthat an annual rate of about 3 percent since last year." The currency rose.
- 9:30am CHF Libor Rate <0.25% versus unchanged at <0.25% expected. The currency fell.
- 9:30amCHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment noted that, "The Swiss franc is still high. The SNB stands ready to enforce the minimum exchange rate, if necessary, by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, and to take further measures as required. With the three - month Libor close to zero, the minimum exchange rate continues to be the right tool to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions in the event of renewed upward pressure on the Swiss franc." The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 320K versus 327K expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.60M versus 4.65M expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 9.0 versus 4.2 expected. The currency rose.
Friday, March 21st
- 12:00am AUD CB Leading Index 0.2% versus last 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
- All Day JPY Bank Holiday
- 10:00am EUR Current Account 25.3B versus 18.4B expected. The currency rose.
- Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit: European Parliament President Martin Schulz said in a speech, "For the first time since the end of the Cold War people in the EU fear for their security. That fear is justified, and has been fuelled by the ever more aggressive rhetoric of the past few weeks. People are asking themselves questions: will the European family stick together and, if the worst comes to the worst, guarantee our security?” The currency rose.
- 10:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 7.5B versus 7.8B expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 1.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD CPI 0.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm CAD Retail Sales 1.3% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
- 9:30pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakotahas not yet spoken.
- 11:30pm USD FOMC Member Stein has not yet spoken.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.3906 open to a 1.3800 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a101.35 open to a102.27 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.6634 open to a 1.6493 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9014 open to a 0.9091 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.1096 open to a 1.1229 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higherfrom a 0.8523 open to a 0.8546 close.
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