Weekly Forex Market Followup: Key Economic Data

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of February 3rd through February 7th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, February 3rd

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 12:30am AUD Building Approvals -2.9% versus -0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 56.7 versus 57.1 expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.3 versus 56.2 expected. The currency fell.

Tuesday, February 4th

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 3:30am AUD Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50% versus 2.50% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement Governor Glenn Stevens wrote, "Looking ahead, the Bank expects growth to remain below trend for a time yet and unemployment to rise further before it peaks. Beyond the short term, growth is expected to strengthen, helped by continued low interest rates and the lower exchange rate. Inflation is expected to be somewhat higher than forecast three months ago, but still consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years." The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Construction PMI 64.6 versus 61.6 expected. The currency rose. 9:45pm NZD Employment Change 1.1% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose. 9:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.0% versus 6.0% expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, February 5th

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 9:30am GBP Services PMI 58.3 versus 59.1 expected. The currency fell.
• 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 175K versus 191K expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits -4.1% versus 2.3% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.0 versus 53.8 expected. The currency fell.
• All Day NZD Bank Holiday

Thursday, February 6th

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 12:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
• 12:30am AUD Trade Balance 0.47B versus -0.23B expected. The currency rose.
• 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus 375B expected. The currency rose.
• 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency rose.
• 12:00pm GBP MPC Rate Statement noted that, "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.The Committee’s latest economic projections will appear in the forthcoming Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. on Wednesday 12 February.The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30 a.m. on Wednesday 19 February." The currency rose.
• 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.25% versus 0.25% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.7B versus 1.0B expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Mario Draghi said that, “We firmly reiterate our forward guidance. We continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy and subdued monetary dynamics. With regard to recent money market volatility and its potential impact on our monetary policy stance, we are monitoring developments closely and are ready to consider all available instruments.” The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Trade Balance -38.7B versus -35.8B expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 331K versus 334K expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 56.8 versus 51.3 expected. The currency rose.

Friday, February 7th

• 12:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "While the recent pick-up in inflation in some retail prices may reflect some noise in the data, it is likely to incorporate some pass-through of the recent exchange rate depreciation. It may also suggest that any downward pressure on margins further up the supply chain has lessened somewhat in recent quarters, or that retail margins might have risen in the December quarter." The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD Employment Change 29.4K versus -45.9K expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.0% versus 7.2% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 113K versus 185K expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 6.6% versus 6.7% expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.3485 open to a 1.3612 close.

USD/JPY:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 102.13 open to a 102.20 close.

GBP/USD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.6428 open to a 1.6391 close.

AUD/USD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.8761 open to a 0.8961 close.

USD/CAD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.1118 open to a 1.1013 close.

NZD/USD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.8104 open to a 0.8283 close.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.