- Yen crosses rally in Asia but dip on opposition to Iwata by DPJ
- UK IP, MP miss sending GBPUSD below 4850
- Europe -.19% Nikkei -.28%
- Oil $91.69/bbl
- Gold $1581/oz.
AUD: NAB Business Confidence 1 vs. 3
JPY: Consumer Confidence 44.3 vs. 43.0
EUR: German CPI 0.6% vs. 0.6%
GBP: NIESR GDP Estimate n/a
GBP: Industrial Production
GBP: Trade Balance
North America
USD: Monthly Budget 12:00
Its been another seesaw session in FX with yen crosses rising in Asian trade only to give up their gains by morning European dealing. USD/JPY hit a fresh yearly high in Asia rising to 96.71 on speculation that the incoming BOJ chief may call a special meeting before April in order to expand QE further.
However, as Europe came online, reports that the DPJ may oppose the nomination of Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata caused a quick and sharp sell-off in yen crosses that dragged EUR/JPY below the 125.00 mark and sent EUR/USD back below 1.3000 as a result. Mr. Iwata, who favors more government oversight over the BOJ is the most controversial of Mr. Abe's appointments. Abe needs at least some support from the DPJ in Japan's upper house in order to confirm Iwata's nomination and despite the comments today, it is likely he will get it.
USD/JPY slipped below the 96.00 level as the European morning wore on. Any forward progress in the pair is now likely to come from US news rather than any fresh initiatives in Japan. Mr. Abe's plan and his policy team are now very familiar to the market and have already communicated their key intended actions when they took power. So there is little new information from Japan that could push the pair higher.
On the other hand, if US economic performance continues to surprise to the upside, it could provide further fuel to the rally in USD/JPY which is why tomorrow's US Retail Sales numbers could be the marquee event of the week.
Meanwhile in the UK, another set of horrid numbers from the manufacturing sector sent the GBP/USD to fresh yearly lows below the 1.4850 level. UK Industrial Production declined by -1.2% versus 0.1% eyed while Manufacturing Production sank -1.5% versus 0.0% forecast. This was the worst reading since August of last year and suggests that the manufacturing sector will weigh heavily on Q1 GDP as the contraction accelerates.
Today's data shows that the massive divergence between the UK's manufacturing and service sectors continues to expand with the former contracting sharply while the latter remains relatively robust. Although manufacturing is a small part of the UK economy it will nevertheless impact the overall growth and as such remains an anchor across the neck of sterling.
Despite the negative news, sterling found some bids underneath the 1.4850 level and stabilized in the aftermath of the release. Although the UK data is undeniably atrocious, the pair is so grossly oversold that the downside may be limited. Given the weakness in PMI reading last week, some of the news may have already been factored into the price and we could see a short covering rally as the day proceeds with longs targeting 1.4900 on a bounceback.
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